OGATA Yosihiko

J-GLOBAL         Last updated: Aug 1, 2017 at 17:38
OGATA Yosihiko
Alternative names
The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
Job title
Emeritus Professor
(BLANK), (BLANK)(Osaka University)

Research Areas


Academic & Professional Experience

Jun 2014
Project Researcher, Earthquake and Volcano Information Center, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo
Apr 2012
Mar 2014
Visiting Professor, Collaborative Research Center for Innovative Mathematical Modeling, Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo
Mar 2012
Mar 2012
Professor Emeritus, ISM
Mar 2012
Mar 2012
Professor Emeritus, SOKEN-DAI
Apr 2005
Mar 2012
Professor, Department of Modeling, ISM
Apr 2008
Mar 2010
Dean, School of Multidisciplinary Sciences, SOUKEN-DAI
Apr 2004
Mar 2008
Director, Department of Statistical Science, School of Multidisciplinary Sciences, SOUKEN-DAI
Oct 1994
Mar 2004
Concurrent Professor, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, SOKEN-DAI
Jul 1994
Mar 2004
Professor, ISM
Associate Professor, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics,
Principal Research Associate, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics,
Research Associate, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics,


Faculty of Science, Shizuoka University


Ishibe, T., Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H. and Satake, K.
Geoscience Letters, Official Journal of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS)   4(5)    Mar 2017
Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K. and Aihara, K.
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America   106(6) 2450-2458   Dec 2016
Nomura, S. Ogata, Y., Uchida, N. and Matsu’ura, M.
Geophysical Journal International   208(Issue1) 468-481   Oct 2016
Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H.
Earth, Planets and Space   68(44)    Mar 2016
Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A.
Earth and Planetary Science Letters   442 51-60   Mar 2016
Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth   120(Issue4) 2561-2578   Apr 2015
Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K.
Journal of Geophysical Research   119(Issue11) 8457-8477   Nov 2014
Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y.
Annals of Applied Statistics   8(3) 1825-1852   Sep 2014
Nomura, S., Ogata, Y. and Nadeau, R.M.
Journal of Geophysical Research   119(Issue9) 7092-7122   Sep 2014
Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y.
Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics   66(4) 687-702   Aug 2014
Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K.
Geophysical Research Letters   41 850-857   Feb 2014
Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y.
Journal of Geophysical Research   118(Issue12) 6165-6182   Dec 2013
OGATA Yosihiko
Statistical Science   28(4) 521-541   Nov 2013
Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock. (jointly authored)
OGATA Yosihiko
Scientific Reports(Nature Publishing Group)   3(2218)    Jul 2013
Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K.
Scientific Reports(Nature Publishing Group)   3(2218)    Jun 2013
OGATA Yosihiko
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America   103(3) 1692-1708   Jun 2013
Prospective foreshock forecast experiment during the last 17 years(jointly authored)
OGATA Yosihiko
Geophysical Journal International   191(Issue3) 1237-1244   Dec 2012
Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first results(jointly authored)
OGATA Yosihiko
Geophysical Journal International   191(Issue2) 653-658   Nov 2012
Evaluation of static stress change forecasting with prospective and blind tests,
OGATA Yosihiko
Geophysical Journal International   188(Issue3) 1425-1440   Mar 2012
Pre-seismic anomalies in seismicity and crustal deformation: case studies of the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake of M6.9 and the 2007 Chuetsu-oki earthquake of M6.8 after the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake of M6.8
OGATA Yosihiko
Geophysical Journal International   186(Issue1) 331-348   Jul 2011
Bayesian forecasting of the recurrent earthquakes and its predictive performance for a small sample size(jointly authored)
OGATA Yosihiko
Journal of Geophysical Research   116(B04315)    Apr 2011
Correction to "Precursory seismic anomalies and transient crustal deformation prior to the 2008 Mw = 6.9 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku, Japan, earthquake"(jointly authored)
OGATA Yosihiko
Journal of Geophysical Research   117(Issue B5, B05313)    Apr 2011
Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity
OGATA Yosihiko
Earth, Planets and Space   63(3) 217-229   Mar 2011
Ogata, Y.
Geophysical Journal International   181 1575-1592   2010
Adelfio, G. and Ogata, Y.
Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics   62(1) 127-143   2010
Llenos, A.L., McGuire, J.J. and Ogata, Y.
Earth and Planetary Science Letters   281(1-2) 59-69   2009
Zhuang, J., Christophersen, A., Savage, M. K., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y., and Jackson, D. D.
Journal of Geophysical Research   113(B11302)    2008
Tanaka, U., Ogata, Y. and Stoyan, D.
Biometrical Journal   50 43-57   2008
Journal of Geophysical Research   112(B8, B08309)    2007
Geophysical Research Letters   33(10, L10305)    2006
A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region by using point process models. (jointly authored)
Journal of Geophysical Research   110(B5, B05S18)    2005
Journal of Geophysical Research   110(B5, B05S06)    2005
Preliminary analysis of observations on the ultra-low frequency electric field in the Beijing region. (jointly authored)
Pure and Applied Geophysics   162 1367-1396   2005
Journal of Geophysical Research   109(B5, B05301)    2004
Journal of Geophysical Research   109(B3, B03308)    2004
Modelling heterogeneous space-time occurrences of earthquake and its residual analysis. (jointly authored)
Applied Statistics(Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C   52(4) 499-509   2003
Statistical principles for seismologists. (jointly authored)
International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology   81B 1573-1586   2003
Journal of Geophysical Research   107(B11, 2268) (ESE1-14)   2002
Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences. (jointly authored)
Journal of the American Statistical Association   97(458) 369-380   2002
Generalized pseudo-likelihood estimates for Markov random fields on lattice. (jointly authored)
Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics   54(1) 1-18   2002
Exploratory analysis of earthquake clusters by likelihood-based trigger models.
Journal of Applied Probability   38A 202-212   2001
Journal of Geophysical Research   106(B5) 8729-8744   2001
Comparison of Two Methods for Calculating the Partition Functions of Various Spatial statistical Models. (jointly authored)
Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics   43(1) 47-65   2001
Empirical Bayes age-period-cohort analysis of retrospective incidence data. (jointly authored)
Scandinavian Journal of Statistics   27(3) 415-432   2000
Improvements of the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimators in various spatial statistical models.(jointly authored)
Journal of Computational and Graphical statistics   8(3) 510-530   1999
Pure and Applied Geophysics   155(2/4) 471-507   1999
Journal of Geophysical Research   104(B8) 17995-18014   1999
Correction of earthquake location estimation in a small-seismic-array system.
Bernoulli   4(2) 167-184   1998
Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences.
Annals of the Institute of statistical Mathematics   50(2) 379-402   1998
Statistical analysis of seismicity (jointly authored)in "Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction", IASPEI Software Library.
International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior   6 13-94   1997
Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research   384(2/3) 477-481   1997
Geophysical Journal International   127(1) 17-30   1996
Evaluation of spatial Bayesian models-Two computational methods.
Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference   51 1-18   1996
Markov chain Monte Carlo integration through simulated annealing and its application to likelihood computation of Bayesian models.
Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute   56(4) 1873-1891   1995
Evaluation of probability forecasts of events,invited discussion as a commentary on "Forecasting Earthquakes and Earthquake Risk" by Prof.D.Vere-Jones
International Journal of Forecasting   11 539-541   1995
Tokuji Utsu, Yosihiko Ogata, Ritsuko S, Matsu'ura
Journal of Physics of the Earth   43(1) 1-33   1995
Statistical analysis of mapped point patterns-present condition of theory and application.(jointly authored)
American Mathematical Society Translation (2)   161 95-108   1994
On parameter estimation for pairwise interaction point processes. (jointly authored)
International Statistical Review   62(1) 99-117   1994
Seismological applications of statistical methods for point-process modelling.
Proceedings of the First US/Japan Conference on the Frontiers of Statistical Modeling   137-163   1994
Fast likelihood computation of epidemic type aftershock-sequence model. (jointly authored)
Geophysical Research Letters   20(19) 2143-2146   1993
Detection of precursory relative quiescence before great earthquakes through a statistical model.
Journal of Geophysical Research   97 19845-19871   1992
Contribution to the invited discussion on Geyer and Thompsons' Paper.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B   54(3) 693   1992
Goodness-of-fit of Bayesian models by the Monte Carlo simulation, Discussion of the paper by J. Besag, J. York and A. Mollie.
Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics   43(1) 25-32   1991
Maximum likelihood estimates of the fractal dimension for random spatial patterns. (jointly authored)
Biometrika   78(3) 463-474   1991
3-D spatial variation of b-values of magnitude-frequency distribution beneath the Kanto District, Japan. (jointly authored)
Geophysical Journal International   104 135-146   1991
Some statistical features of the long-term variation of the global and regional seismic activity. (jointly authored)
International Statistical Review   59(2) 139-161   1991
Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors   59(4) 294-328   1990
A Monte Carlo method for an objective Bayesian procedure.
Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics   42(3) 403-433   1990
Comments on "Space-time modelling with long-memory dependence : Assessing Ireland's wind power resources by John Haslett and Adrian Raftery.
Applied Statistic(Journal of the Royal Statistioal Society, C)   38 37-38   1989
Likelihood estimation of soft-core interaction potentials for gibbsian point patterns (jointly authored)
Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics   41(3) 583-600   1989
A Monte Carlo method for high dimensional integration.
Numerische Mathematik   55 137-157   1989
Likelihood analysis of spatial inhomogeneity for marked point patterns. (jointly authored)
Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics   40(1) 29-39   1988
Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes.
Journal of American Statistical Association   83(401) 9-27   1988
Yosihiko OGATA, Ken'ichiro YAMASHINA
Journal of Physics of the Earth   34(2) 187-194   1986
Likelihood estimation of interaction potentials and external fields of inhomogeneous spatial point patterns (jointly authored)
Proceedings of the PACIFIC STATISTICAL CONGRESS-1985   150-154   1986
Point-process models with linearly parametrized intensity for application to earthquake data. (jointly authored)
Journal of Applied Probability   23A 291-310   1986
Estimation of interaction potentials of marked spatial point patterns through the maximum likelihood method. (jointly authored)
Biometrics   41 421-433   1985

Conference Activities & Talks

Real-time foreshock discrimination(invited lecture)
8th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei8)   Aug 2013   
History-dependent magnitude forecast by statistical discrimination of foreshocks(invited lecture)
SCEC/CSEP Workshop on Testing External Forecasts and Predictions   May 2013   
A prospect of earthquake prediction research(invited lecture)
The Second International CORSSA (the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis) Workshop   Jan 2013   
Residual Analysis in Statistical Seismology and Discovering Seismicity Anomalies(invited lecture)
The 2nd Institute of Mathematical Statistics Asia Pacific Rim Meeting   Jul 2012   
Some Issues and Proposals for Operational Space-Time Forecasting and Their Evaluations(invited lecture)
SCEC CSEP Workshop: Final Evaluation of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) Experiment and the Future of Earthquake Forecasting   Jun 2012   
Delaunay-based Bayesian seismicity models: Introduction to a program package
Statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes   Mar 2012   
Diagnosis of seismic anomalies and stress changes: Case studies from the recent earthquakes in and around Japan(invited lecture)
Workshop on Statistical and Physical Modelling of Earthquake Processes, GNS Science   Oct 2011   
The M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and statistical seismology(invited lecture)
Seminar series in honour of David Vere-Jones   Oct 2011   
Seismic and geodetic anomalies preceding the rupture around the focal region: Applications of the ETAS model (invited lecture)
Asia Oceania Geosciences Society(AOGS) 8th Annual Meeting   Aug 2011   
Anomalous seismic activities before and after the M9 Tohoku-oki Earthquake (invited lecture)
7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology   May 2011   
Modeling of temporal and spatial nonhomogeneity for space - time processes. (IL-SONG lecture)
The Spring Korean Statistical Society Annual Meeting   2010   
Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity. (invited lecture)
“Earthquake Hazards in Urban Areas” and “Toward Constructing Forecast Systems of Earthquakes” -The 3rd SCEC-ERI joint workshop-   2010   
Global earthquake catalogs and long-range correlation of seismic activity. (invited lecture)
2009 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union   2009   
Modeling for immediate aftershock probability forecasting. (invited lecture)
The 1st Institute of Mathematical Statistics Asia Pacific Rim Meeting   2009   
Location Dependent Space-Time Models for Wide Regional and Global Seismicity. (invited lecture)
The 6th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology   2009   
Anomalies in seismic activity and transient crustal deformation. (invited lecture)
ESF-FWF Conference of New Challenges In Earthquake Dynamics: Observing And Modelling A Multi-Scale System   2008   
Space-time ETAS Model. (invited lecture)
CSEP Global Collaboration & Testing Meeting   2008   
Seismicity anomaly and crustal deformation anomaly. (invited lecture)
Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting   2008   
Standard point-process models for prediction and diagnosis of earthquake activity/ (invited lecture)
Workshop on Data-driven and Physically-based Models for Characterization of Processes in Hydrology, Hydraulics, Oceanography and Climate Change   2008   
Modeling of heterogeneous datasets. (invited lecture)
Workshop on Data-driven and Physically-based Models for Characterization of Processes in Hydrology, Hydraulics, Oceanography and Climate Change   2008   
Diagnostic Statistical Analyses to Detect the Seismicity and Geodetic Anomalies Relative to the Normal Predictions. (tutorial talk)
The 5th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology   2007   
Introduction of Short-term prediction experiments. (invited lecture)
Workshop on Earthquake Predictability and Time-dependent Forecasting   2007   
Seismicity anomaly from the predicted rate by the ETAS model. (invited lecture)
Southern California Earthquake Center and Earthquake research Institute Joint Workshop on Earthquakes in Urban Areas   2006   
Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 at the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the ETAS model. (invited lecture)
2006 International Workshop on Earthquake Precursor   2006   
Contributions of Professor Tokuji Utsu to statistical seismology and recent developments. (invited lecture)
The 4th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology   2006   
Seismicity anomalies measured by the ETAS model and stress changes (solicited). (invited lecture)
The General Assembly 2005 of the European Geosciences Union (EGU)   2005   
Synchronous seismicity changes in and around the northern Japan preceding the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake of M8.0. (invited lecture)
International Conference in Commemoration of 5-th Anniversary of the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, Taiwan   2004   
Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes. (invited lecture)
The 6th World Congress of the Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability, and 67th Annual Meeting of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics   2004   
Diagnostic analyses of space-time branching processes for earthquakes. (invited lecture)
International Conference on Spatial Point Process Modelling and its Applications (SPPA)   2004   
Visualizing goodness-of-fit of point-process models for earthquake clusters. (invited lecture)
Analysis of Natural and Social Phenomena: Data Science and System Reduction; an international workshop of the 21st Century COE Program at Keio University   2004   
Stress changes, seismicity changes and statistical models. (invited presentation)
Workshop on Seismic Activity and Probabilities of Major Earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai Area, Japan   2004   
Space-Time Model of Regional Seismicity for Revealing Temporal Anomalies. (invited lecture)
International Symposium, Science of Modeling; The 30th Anniversary of the Information Criterion(AIC)   2003   
Modeling of heterogeneous space-time earthquake occurrence. (invited lecture)
Point processes--theory and applications   2003   
Sesimicity-change-analysis by a space-time point-process model. (invited presentation)
Third International Workshop on Statistical Seismology   2003   
A practival space-time model for regional seismicity. (solicited presentation)
Session on "Scaling, cascades and self-organized criticality in Earthquakes: Damage mechanics and Predictabulity, 2003, EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly   2003   
Modelling of heterogeneous space-time earthquake occurrences and Its residual analysis. (invited lecture)
Workshop on Statistical Seismology   2002   
Which models seem most promising? (tutorial lecture, and a learder of a FORUM)
IMA Workshop: Point Process Modeling and Seismological Applications of Statistics   2002   
Analysis of seismic activity through point-process modeling. (tutorial lecture, and a learder of a FORUM)
IMA Workshop: Point Process Modeling and Seismological Applications of Statistics   2002   
Space-time analysis of earthquake catalog. (invited lecture)
Meeting on Stochastic Geometry, Spatial Statistics and Statistical Physics   2002   
Annealing MCMC integration with application to likelihood computation of Bayesian models. (invited lecture)
International Symposium on New Trends in Optimization and Computational Algorithms (NTOC2001)   2001   
Space-time modeling of seismicity. (invited lecture)
Session on Statistics for Spatial and Spatial-Temporal Processes, the 53rd Session of the International Statistical Institute   2001   
Modelig of clustered space-time point ptocesses in seismology. (invited lecture)
Session on Spatial Statistics at the 2001 Annual Meeting of Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS)   2001   
Practical etreme value analyses for seismicity. (invited lecture)
International Symposium on Extrem Value Analysis: Theory and Practice   2001   
Modeling of spatio-temporal seismic activity and its residual analysis. (invited lecture)
Japan-U.S. Seminar on Statistical Time Series Analysis   2001   
Modelling of spatio-temporal seismic activity and its residual analysis. (invited lecture)
Symposium in honor of David Vere-Jones   2001   
Space-time modeling of earthquake occurrences. (invited lecture)
Meeting on Stochastic in the Sciences   2001   
Some statistical features of foreshocks. (invited lecture)
Japan-US Workshop on Foreshocks and Fracture   2000   
Spatially heterogeneous space-time modeling for seismic activity and space-time residual analysis for point processes. (invited lecture)
Research Symposium: Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Data   2000   
Evaluation of high dimensional Bayesian models: Two computational method. (invited lecture)
Workshop on Information-Based Induction Science   2000   

Association Memberships



Preseismic anomalies in seismicity and crustal deformation: Case studies of the 2007 Noto Peninsula Earthquake of M6.9 and the 2007 Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake of M6.8, Research Memorandum ISM, 1109, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
Identification and estimation of superposed Neyman-Scott spatial cluster processes (jointly authored), Research Memorandum ISM, 1106, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
Seismicity shadows in space-time aftershock activity, Research Memorandum ISM, 1073, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
Age-period-cohort analysis of incidence from incompletely detected retrospective data (jointly authored), Research Memorandum ISM, 723, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics

Research Grants & Projects

Statistical study of anomalies in aftershock sequences
Space-time extensions of earthquake occurrence models
Estimation of hazard of rupture based on paleoearthquake data.