庄 建倉

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アバター
研究者氏名
庄 建倉
 
ジュアン ジャンカン
URL
http://kaken.nii.ac.jp/d/r/70465920.ja.html
所属
統計数理研究所
部署
モデリング研究系
職名
准教授

研究分野

 
 

経歴

 
2012年
 - 
2013年
統計数理研究所 准教授
 

委員歴

 
2015年
 - 
2016年
American Geophysical Union  Associate Editor, Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth
 

論文

 
Multiple Linear Regression Analyses on the Relationships among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area, and Surface Displacement
Chu, A., 庄 建倉
Rock Anisotropy, Fracture and Earthquake Assessment   219-237   2016年2月   [査読有り]
Current challenges in statistical seismology
Huang, Q., M. Gestenberger, 庄 建倉
Pure and Applied Geophysics   173(1) 1-3   2016年1月   [査読有り]
Statistical Evaluation of Efficiency and Possibility of Earthquake Predictions with Gravity Field Variation and its Analytic Signal in Western China
Chen, S., C. Jiang, 庄 建倉
Pure and Applied Geophysics   173(1) 305-319   2016年1月   [査読有り]
A hypocentral version of the space-time ETAS model
Guo, Y., 庄 建倉, Zhou, S.
Geophysical Journal International   203(1) 366-372   2015年10月   [査読有り]
Weighted likelihood estimators for point processes
庄 建倉
Spatial Statistics   14 166-178   2015年8月   [査読有り]
Yicun Guo, Jiancang Zhuang, Shiyong Zhou
Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth   120 3309-3323   2015年5月
©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. This study incorporates the rupture geometry of big earthquakes in the formulation of the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which is a point process model widely applied in the ...
Evaluation methods of earthquake forecasts (in Japanese).
庄 建倉, 尾形 良彦
Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics   63 29-44   2015年   [査読有り]
Stochastic simulation of earthquake catalogs
庄 建倉, Touati, S.
Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis      2015年   [査読有り]
Zechar, Jeremy Douglas D., Zhuang, Jiancang
Geophysical Journal International   199 60-68   2014年10月   [査読有り]
Han, Peng, Hattori, Katsumi, Hirokawa, Maiko, Zhuang, Jiancang, Chen, Chieh-Hung, Febty Febriani, Hiroki Yamaguchi, Chie Yoshino, Jann-Yenq Liu, Shuji Yoshida
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics   119(6) 4998-5011   2014年6月   [査読有り]
Gert Zoeller (Univ. Potsdam), Matthias Holschneider (Univ. Potsdam), Sebastian Hainzl (GFZ), and Jiancang Zhuang (ISM)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America   104(2) 769-779   2014年4月   [査読有り]
Statistical modeling of earthquake occurrences based on external geophysical observations: with an illustrative application to the ultra-low frequency ground electric signals observed in the Beijing region
庄 建倉, 尾形良彦, Vere-Jones D., Ma L., and Guan H.
In Seismic Imaging, Fault Rock Damage and Healing   351-376   2014年3月   [査読有り]
Ke Jia, Shiyong Zhou, Jiancang Zhuang, Changsheng Jiang
Seismological Research Letters   85 60-67   2014年1月
Maura Murru, Jiancang Zhuang, Rodolfo Console, Giuseppe Falcone
Annals of Geophysics   57 2-18   2014年1月
© 2014 by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. All rights reserved. In this paper, we compare the forecasting performance of several statistical models, which are used to describe the occurrence process of earthquakes in forecasting...
Jiancang Zhuang, Maximilian J. Werner, David S. Harte
Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics   88(6,Pt.A) 062109.1-062109.13   2013年12月
We study the stability conditions of a class of branching processes prominent in the analysis and modeling of seismicity. This class includes the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model as a special case, but more generally comprises models...
Changsheng Jiang, Jiancang Zhuang, Feng Long, Libo Han, Lujie Guo
Acta Seismologica Sinica   35 661-669   2013年9月
The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model was fitted to the aftershock sequence of the April 20, 2013 Lushan MS7.0 earthquake with cutoff magnitude Mc=ML2.0 and a fitting time interval from 0.31 days to 24.12 days after the earthquake. Th...
Chang Sheng Jiang, Zhong Liang Wu, Jian Cang Zhuang
Chinese Journal of Geophysics (Acta Geophysica Sinica)   56(9) 2971-2981   2013年9月
Aftershock sequence can last a long time in the vicinity of historical strong earthquakes, especially in the mid-continental regions where deformation rate is low. The earthquake-sequence-association (ESA) problem, that is, whether an earthquake i...
Abdelhak Talbi, Kazuyoshi Nanjo, Jiancang Zhuang, Kenji Satake, Mohamed Hamdache
Geophysical Journal International   194(3) 1823-1835   2013年9月
This study introduces a new earthquake forecasting model that uses the moment ratio (MR) of the first to second order moments of earthquake interevent times as a precursory alarmindex to forecast large earthquake events. This MR model is based on ...
Abdelhak Talbi, Kazuyoshi Nanjo, Kenji Satake, Jiancang Zhuang, Mohamed Hamdache
Journal of Seismology   17(3) 1041-1061   2013年7月
We present a new measure of earthquake clustering and explore its use for comparing the performance of three different declustering methods. The advantage of this new clustering measure over existing techniques is that it can be used for non-Poiss...
Yosihiko Ogata, Koichi Katsura, Giuseppe Falcone, Kazuyoshi Nanjo, Jiancang Zhuang
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America   103(3) 1692-1708   2013年6月
Among scoring methods employed to determine the performance of probability predictions, the log-likelihood method is the most common and useful. Although the log-likelihood score evaluates the comprehensive power of forecasts, we need to further e...
Ting Wang, Jiancang Zhuang, Teruyuki Kato, Mark Bebbington
Geophysical Research Letters   40(11) 2631-2635   2013年6月
We validate that changes of ground deformation recorded by GPS contain useful information for earthquake forecasting. A moving rate of variation filter is used to extract short-term signals from GPS time series in New Zealand, California, and Japa...
Katrina M. Jacobs, Euan G C Smith, Martha K. Savage, Jiangcang Zhuang
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth   118 553-569   2013年1月
We present a new cumulative rate (CURATE) clustering method to identify earthquake sequences especially in regions with swarm activity. The method identifies sequences by comparing observed rates to an average rate. It is distinct from previous cl...
K. Z. Nanjo, H. Tsuruoka, S. Yokoi, Y. Ogata, G. Falcone, N. Hirata, Y. Ishigaki, T. H. Jordan, K. Kasahara, K. Obara, D. Schorlemmer, D. Schorlemmer, K. Shiomi, J. Zhuang
Geophysical Journal International   191 653-658   2012年11月
Although no deterministic and reliable earthquake precursor is known to date, we are steadily gaining insight into probabilistic forecasting that draws on space-time characteristics of earthquake clustering. Clustering-based models aiming to forec...
Rodolfo Console, Koshun Yamaoka, Jiancang Zhuang
International Journal of Geophysics   2012    2012年9月
Basic models of seismicity: temporal models
庄 建倉, J., Harte, D., Werner, M.J., Hainzl, S. and Zhou, S.
Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis      2012年8月   [査読有り]
Long-term earthquakeforecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term clustering
庄 建倉
Research in Geophysics   22(1)    2012年7月   [査読有り]
Yajun Peng, Shiyong Zhou, Jiancang Zhuang, Jia Shi
Geophysical Journal International   189(3) 1734-1740   2012年6月
Large earthquakes could perturb the stress field in regions even thousands of kilometers away, leading to abrupt changes in background seismicity. We have developed a probability-based approach, based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model...
Evaluation of the prediction performance of the Annual Cosultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency by using the gambling score
庄 建倉, 蒋 長勝
Chinese Journal of Geophysics   55 1695-1709   2012年5月   [査読有り]
Tom Parsons, Yosihiko Ogata, Jiancang Zhuang, Eric L. Geist
Geophysical Journal International   188(3) 1425-1440   2012年3月
Controversy and uncertainty about the physics of earthquake triggering mean that stress interactions are rarely incorporated into formal probabilistic forecasts. Statistical methods capture and predict complex features in short-term aftershock for...
Jiancang Zhuang, Changsheng Jiang
Tectonophysics   524-525 155-164   2012年2月
The Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency in China is held by the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) in order to provide one-year earthquake predictions over most China. In these predictions, regions of concern are denoted together...
Seismicity declustering
van Stiphout T., 庄 建倉 and Marsan D.
Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis      2012年   [査読有り]
J. Douglas Zechar, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael, Mark Naylor, Sandy Steacy, Stefan Wiemer, Jiancang Zhuang
Seismological Research Letters   82 686-690   2011年9月
Lang ping Zhang, Jiancang Zhuang
Tectonophysics   509(3-4) 191-197   2011年8月
Temporal clustering and spatial concentration of aftershock sequences can be observed after the occurrence of most major earthquakes. Earthquake clustering effects, such as the rapid decay of aftershocks and second-stage aftershocks, cause large f...
Basic models of seismicity: spatiotemporal models
庄 建倉,Werner, M.J., Hainzl S., Harte D., and Zhou, S.
Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis      2011年7月
Warner Marzocchi, Jiancang Zhuang
Geophysical Research Letters   38(9) L09310,1-6   2011年5月
The most used and accepted models for daily forecasts are based on short-term space and time earthquake clustering for occurrence rates and on the Gutenberg-Richter law for the frequency-magnitude. These models have been demonstrated to produce re...
Jiancang Zhuang
Earth, Planets and Space   63(3) 207-216   2011年4月
This paper gives the technical solutions of implementing the space-time epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term (1-day) earthquake forecasts for the all-Japan region in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictabi...
Qi Wang, David D. Jackson, Jiancang Zhuang
Geophysical Research Letters   37(21) L21307   2010年11月
Many clustering models imply two kinds of earthquakes: spontaneous ones and those triggered by previous earthquakes. The pair-wise links from earlier to later earthquakes control the estimates of the clustering parameters. However, earthquake cata...
J. Douglas Zechar, Jiancang Zhuang
Geophysical Journal International   182(3) 1319-1326   2010年9月
In 2003, the Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm attracted the attention of seismologists and international news agencies when researchers claimed two successful predictions of large earthquakes. These researchers had begun applying RTP ...
Jiancang Zhuang
Geophysical Journal International   181(1) 382-390   2010年4月
This paper presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardl...
Chang Sheng Jiang, Jian Cang Zhuang
Chinese Journal of Geophysics (Acta Geophysica Sinica)   53 305-317   2010年2月
Based on the time-space epidemic-type aftershock sequence ( ETAS ) model and stochastic declustering method, a retrospective study was conducted to investigate whether longterm seismicity anomalies existed before the May 12, 2008, Wenchuan Ms8. 0 ...
Qi Wang, David D. Jackson, Jiancang Zhuang
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth   115(B8) B08310   2010年1月
Aftershocks and some main shocks are triggered, with timing controlled by preceding events. The remaining spontaneous earthquakes presumably respond to tectonic stresses. We consider whether triggered events can be reliably identified, whether the...
庄 建倉
統計数理   57(1) 179-193   2009年11月   [査読有り]
This paper presents a preliminary analysis of observations on ultra-low frequency ground electric signals from stations operated by the China Seismological Bureau over the last 20 years. A brief description of the instrumentation, operating proced...
Lang Ping Zhang, Xiang Chu Yin, Jian Cang Zhuang, Xiao Tao Zhang, Shuai Yuan, Nai Gang Liang
Earthquake   29 60-67   2009年1月
On 12 May 2008, Wenchuan earthquake with magnitude Ms8. 0 occurred in Sichuan, China. Because of the different focal mechanisms, we divide the distribution region of Wenchuan aftershocks into two parts, namely the southwest part and the northeast ...
Jiancang Zhuang, Annemarie Christophersen, Martha K. Savage, David Vere-Jones, Yosihiko Ogata, David D. Jackson
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth   113(B11) B11302-B113-2-9   2008年11月
In this study we investigate the foreshock probabilities calculated from earthquake catalogs from Japan, southern California, and New Zealand. Unlike conventional studies on foreshocks, we use a probability-based declustering method to separate ea...
David Vere-Jones, Jiancang Zhuang
Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics   78(4,Pt.2) 047102.1-047102.3   2008年10月
This Brief Report corrects and extends the results of Zhuang and Ogata [Phys. Rev. E 73, 046134 (2006)] on the asymptotic behavior of the largest event in the epidemic-type aftershock-sequence model for earthquake occurrence. We show that, in the ...
Xiang Chu Yin, Lang Ping Zhang, Hui Hui Zhang, Can Yin, Yucang Wang, Yongxian Zhang, Keyin Peng, Haitao Wang, Zhiping Song, Huaizhong Yu, Jiancang Zhuang
Pure and Applied Geophysics   163(11/12) 2317-2341   2006年12月
Seismogenic process is a nonlinear and irreversible one, so that the response to loading of a seismogenic zone is different from the unloading one. This difference reflects quantitatively the process of an earthquake preparation. A physics-based n...
Jiancang Zhuang
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B: Statistical Methodology   68 635-653   2006年9月
The paper gives first-order residual analysis for spatiotemporal point processes that is similar to the residual analysis that has been developed by Baddeley and co-workers for spatial point processes and also proposes principles for second-order ...
Jiancang Zhuang, Yosihiko Ogata
Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics   73(4) 046134.1-046134.12   2006年4月
The space-time epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is a stochastic branching process in which earthquake activity is classified into background and clustering components and each earthquake triggers other earthquakes independently according to...
Yosihiko Ogata, Jiancang Zhuang
Tectonophysics   413(1-2) 13-23   2006年2月
For sensitive detection of anomalous seismicity such as quiescence and activation in a given region, we need a suitable statistical reference model that represents a normal seismic activity in the region. The regional occurrence rate of the earthq...
Discussion on "Residual analysis for spatial point processes" by Baddeley A., Turner R., M{\o}ller J. and Hazelton M.
庄 建倉
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B   67(5) 656-657   2005年11月   [査読有り]
ZHUANG Jiancang, CHANG Chung‐Pai, OGATA Yoshihiko, CHEN Yuh‐Ing
J Geophys Res   110(B5) B05S18.1-B05S18.12-12   2005年5月
This paper investigates the shallow seismicity occurring in the Taiwan region during the 20th century using a stochastic declustering method that has been developed on the basis of the theory of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model. It prov...
ZHUANG Jiancang, VERE‐JONES David, GUAN Huaping, OGATA Yosihiko, MA Li
Pure Appl Geophys   162(6/7) 1367-1396   2005年5月
Diagnostic analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquakes
庄 建倉, 尾形 良彦, Vere-Jones D.
Spatial Point Process Modelling and Ist Applications   275-290   2005年   [査読有り]
Jiancang Zhuang, Yosihiko Ogata, David Vere-Jones
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth   109    2004年5月
On the basis of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and the thinning procedure, this paper gives the method about how to classify the earthquakes in a given catalogue into different clusters stochastically. The key points of this me...
J. Zhuang, Y. Ogata, D. Vere-Jones
Journal of the American Statistical Association   97 369-380   2002年8月
This article is concerned with objective estimation of the spatial intensity function of the background earthquake occurrences from an earthquake catalog that includes numerous clustered events in space and time, and also with an algorithm for pro...
Relative quiescence within the Jiashi swarm in China: an application of the ETAS point process model
Ma L., 庄 建倉
Journal of Applied Probability   38(A) 213-221   2001年   [査読有り]
Jie Liu, Jian Cang Zhuang, Vere Jones David, Yao Lin Shi, Li Ma
Acta Seismologica Sinica English Edition   13 38-49   2000年12月
Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the relation between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake prediction, and the yearly probability...
J. Zhuang
New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics   43 447-460   2000年1月
The earthquake sequence for this study occurred off Cape Palliser at the southeastern tip of the North Island of New Zealand. Two main events occurred, on 1990 Oct 5 and 1990 Oct 6, both with local magnitude M(L)5.3. They were accompanied by a lar...
Random distribution of the loading and unloading response ratio under the assumptions of Poisson models
庄 建倉, Yin X.
Earthquake Research in China   14(2)    2000年   [査読有り]
Main Shock and After Shock -- From the Omori law to the epidemic aftershock model
庄 建倉, Ma L.
Recent Development in World Seismology (In Chinese with English abstract)   (5) 12-18   2000年   [査読有り]
Analysis on the Effect of Sample conditions on the Results of Load/Unload Response Ratio
Wang H., Peng K., 庄 建倉, Zhang X., Yin X. 
Earthquake (In Chinese with English abstract).   19(3) 223-229   1999年   [査読有り]
Jian Cang Zhuang, Li Ma
Acta Seismologica Sinica English Edition   11 59-70   1998年12月
The stress release model is a stochastic point process model developed from the theory of elastic rebound. It can be used to analyse, simulate or predict the seismicity in a certain seismic region. This paper first gives a brief representation of ...
Yao Lin Shi, Jie Liu, Vere Jones David, Jian Cang Zhuang, Li Ma
Acta Seismologica Sinica English Edition   11 421-430   1998年12月
Based on a cellular automata model, which obeys rules produced by a spring-damper-slider model of fault network, a synthetic earthquake catalog of deterministic chaos can be produced. It is a challenge to inverse the model parameters and predict t...
Jie Liu, David Vere-Jones, Li Ma, Yao Lin Shi, Jian Cang Zhuang
Acta Seismologica Sinica English Edition   11 273-281   1998年12月
Coupled stress release model is proposed in the paper considering the interaction between different parts based on stress release model by Vere-Jones, and is used to historical earthquake data from North China. The results by this model are compar...
Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研
Spatial Statistics   14 166-178   2015年11月   [査読有り]
地震予測の評価法について
庄 建倉 統計数理研究所, 尾形 良彦 統計数理研究所
統計数理   63 29-44   2015年6月   [査読有り]
Guo, Yicun Peking Univ. (China) , Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研, Zhou, Shiyong Peking Univ., (China)
Journal of Geophysical Research   120 3309-3323   2015年5月   [査読有り]
Huang, Qinghua 北京大学, Gerstenberger, Matthiew GNS Science, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研
Pure and Applied Geophysics   173 1-3   2016年1月   [査読有り]
Huang, Yi-Lei Peking Univ., China, Zhou, Shi-Yong Peking Univ., China, Zhuang, Jian-Cang 統数研
Chinese Journal of Geophysics   59 1350-1358   2016年4月   [査読有り]
Han, Peng ISM, Hattori, Katsumi 千葉大学, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研, Chen, Chieh-Hung National Central University, Taiwan, Liu, Jann-Yenq National Central University, Taiwan, Yoshida, Shuji 千葉大学
Geophysical Journal International   208 482-490   2016年11月   [査読有り]
Wang, Ting Otago Univ., New Zealand, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研, Obara, Kazushige 東大地震研, Tsuraoka, Hiroshi 東大地震研
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics)   66 ??-??   2016年11月   [査読有り]
Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研, Wang, Dun 東大地震研, Matsu'ura, Mitsuhiro 統数研
Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics   106 1832-1839   2016年8月   [査読有り]
Luo, Jiawen 北京大学, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.   106 1364-1369   2016年6月   [査読有り]

書籍等出版物

 
Statistical modeling of earthquake occurrences based on external geophysical observations: with an illustrative application to the ultra-low frequency ground electric signals observed in the Beijing region
Zhuang, Jiancang (ISM), Vere-Jones, David (Victoria Univ. of Wellington, New Zealand), Ogata, Yosihiko (ISM), Ma, Li (Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration), Guan, Huaping (Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration)
2014年4月   
Stochastic simulation of earthquake catalogues
Zhuang, Jiancang (ISM), Touati, Sarah (Univ. of Edinburgh)
2015年3月   
Multiple Linear Regression Analyses on the Relationships among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area, and Surface Displacement
Chu, Annie Woodbury University, USA, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研
2016年1月   
Multiple Linear Regression Analyses on the Relationships among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area, and Surface Displacement
Chu, Annie Woodbury University, CA
2016年4月   

講演・口頭発表等

 
Modelling the effect of fault geometry on earthquake triggering
Guo, Yicun Peking Univ., China, Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研, Zhou, Shiyong Peking Univ., China
日本地球惑星科学連合大会   2014年5月2日   
震源過程とVere-Jonesの分枝モデル間の類似特性
庄 建倉 (実講演者) 統数研, Wang, Dun 東大地震研
日本地球惑星科学連合大会   2014年4月28日   
Semi-critical mode of marked Hawkes processes
庄 建倉 (実講演者) 統数研
統計関連学会連合大会   2014年9月16日   
Similarities between Vere-Jones' branching crack model and earthquake source process
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研, Wang, Dun 東大地震研, Matsu'ura, Mitsuhiro 統数研
2014 SCEC (Southern California Earthquake Center) Annual Meeting   2014年9月7日   
Recent development of the gambling score
庄 建倉 (実講演者) 統数研, Zechar, Jeremy D. ETH
東京大学地震研究所 第5回研究集会「日本における地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」   2014年7月10日   
Evaluating earthquake predictions by using the gambling score,
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研
Varenna Workshop on Operational earthquake forecasting and decision making   2014年6月11日   
Similarities between Vere-Jones' branching crack model and earthquake source process
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研, Wang, Dun 東大地震研, Matsu'ura, Mitsuhiro 統数研
中国地球科学連合2014学術年会   2014年10月21日   
Semi-critical mode of marked Hawkes processes
庄 建倉 (実講演者) 統数研
統計関連学会連合大会   2014年9月16日   
Similarities between Vere-Jones' branching crack model and earthquake source process
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研, Wang, Dun 東大地震研, Matsu'ura, Mitsuhiro 統数研
中国地球科学連合2014学術年会   2014年10月21日   
Similarities between Vere-Jones' branching crack model and earthquake source process
庄 建倉 (実講演者) 統数研, Wang, Dun 東大地震研, 松浦 充宏 統数研
日本地震学会2014年度秋季大会   2014年11月24日   
Determining the actual nodal plane and analyzing the correlation between earthquake sizes and rakes
庄 建倉 (実講演者) 統数研, 王 敏真 統数研, Enescu, Bogdan 筑波大, Wang, Dun 東大・地震研
日本地震学会2014年度秋季大会   2014年11月26日   
Inverting rupture geometry from triggering
郭 一村 北京大学, 庄 建倉 (実講演者) 統数研, 周 仕勇 北京大学
日本地震学会2014年度秋季大会   2014年11月25日   
Foreshock probabilities and the Bath law under the ETAS model
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研
2014 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union   2014年12月16日   
Short-term earthquake probabilities during the L' Aquila earthquake sequence in central Italy, 2009
Falcone, Giuseppe (実講演者) INGV, Italy, Murru, Maura INGV, Italy, Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研, Console, Rodolfo INGV, Italy
2014 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union   2014年12月16日   
Detecting spatial variations of earthquake clustering parameters via maximum weighted likelihood estimates
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研
日本地球惑星科学連合2015年大会   2015年5月24日   
Statistical Analysis of ULF Seismo-Magnetic Phenomena in Kanto, Japan
Han, Peng (実講演者) 千葉大学, Hattori, Katsumi 千葉大学, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研
日本地球惑星科学連合2015年大会   2015年5月26日   
Assessment of optimal short-term earthquake forecasts based on ULF seismo-magnetic data
Han, Peng (実講演者) 千葉大学, Hattori, Katsumi 千葉大学, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研
日本地球惑星科学連合2015年大会   2015年5月24日   
Detecting spatial variations of earthquake clustering parameters via maximum weighted likelihood estimates
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研
9th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei9)   2015年6月15日   
Hidden Markov Modeling of Sparse Time Series from Non-volcanic Tremor observations
Wang, Ting (実講演者) Otago Univ., New Zealand, Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研, Obara, Kazushige ERI, Univ. of Tokyo, Tsuruoka, Hiroshi ERI, Univ. of Tokyo
9th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei9)   2015年6月15日   
An improved ETAS model for inverting the rupture geometry from seismicity triggerring
Guo, Yicun (実講演者) Peking Univ., China, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研, Zhou, Shiyong Peking Univ., China
9th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei9)   2015年6月15日   
Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate
Falcone, Giuseppe (実講演者) イタリア国立地球物理と火山研究所, Murru, Maura イタリア国立地球物理と火山研究所, Rodolfo, Console イタリア国立地球物理と火山研究所, Marzocchi, Warner イタリア国立地球物理と火山研究所, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研
9th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei9)   2015年6月15日   
On the focal mechanism distributions of background seismicity and triggered seismicity in the Japan region
Wang, Minzhen (実講演者) 統数研, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研
9th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei9)   2015年6月15日   
Optimal short-term earthquake forecasts based on ULF seismo-magnetic data
Han, Peng (実講演者) 千葉大学, Hattori, Katsumi 千葉大学, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研
9th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei9)   2015年6月15日   
Weighted likelihood estimators for point processes
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研
Spatial Statistics: Emerging Patterns   2015年6月12日   
Weighted likelihood estimators for point processes
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研
Spatial Statistics: Emerging Patterns   2015年6月12日   
A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts and deterministic eartquake predictions
Zechar, Jeremy.D. (実講演者) ETH, Rierola, Marc ETH, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研
9th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei9)   2015年6月17日   
Weighted likelihood estimators for point processes
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研
STM2015 and CSM2015   2015年7月15日   
Determining the actual nodal planes in earthquake focal mechanisms
Wang, Min-Zhen (実講演者) 統数研, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研, Enescu, Bogdan 筑波大学 生命環境系, Wang, Dun 東京大学 地震研究所
東京大学地震研究所 第6回研究集会「日本における地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」   2015年7月23日   
Hypocentral ETAS model
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研, Guo, Yicun 北京大学 地球宇宙科学研究科, Zhou, Shiyong 北京大学 地球空間科学学院
東京大学地震研究所 第6回研究集会「日本における地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」   2015年7月23日   
Features of the earthquake source process simulated by Vere-Jones' branching crack model
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研
9th ACES(APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation) International Workshop   2015年8月10日   
Detection of spatial varations of earthquake clustering characteristics via weighted likelihood estimators
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研
2015年度統計関連学会連合大会   2015年9月8日   
Detecting spatial variations of earthquake clustering characteristics via weighted likelihood estimates
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研
日本地震学会2015年度秋季大会   2015年10月26日   
ULF Seismo-electromagnetic Studies in Kanto, Japan: Progress and Challenges
Han, Peng (実講演者) 千葉大学, Hattori, Katsumi 千葉大学, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研
2015 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)   2015年12月16日   
Multiple linear regression models to fit magnitude using rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacemen
Chu, Annie (実講演者) Woodbury University, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研
2015 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)   2015年12月18日   
An improved space-time ETAS model for inverting the rupture geometry from seismicity triggering
Guo, Yicun (実講演者) 北京大学, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研, Zhou, Shiyong 北京大学, Gao, Yijian 北京大学
2015 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)   2015年12月18日   
Identifying spatiotemporal migration patterns of non-volcanic tremors using hidden Markov models
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研, Wang, Ting University of Otago, Obara, Kazushige 東京大学地震研究所, Tsuruoka, Hiroshi 東京大学
2015 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)   2015年12月16日   
Testing Significance of Non-Seismicity Precursors Against Earthquake Clustering Models Instead of Against Complete Randomness
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研
2016 International Workshop on Earthquake Precursors   2016年5月16日   
Assessment and optimization of the potential earthquake precursory information in ULF magnetic data registered at Kanto, Japan during 2000 – 2010
Han, Peng (実講演者) 統数研, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研, Hattori, Katsumi 千葉大学
日本地球惑星科学連合2016年大会   2016年5月25日   
Optimized physics-based earthquake forecasts for inland Japan
Segou, Margret (実講演者) British Geological Survery, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研
日本地球惑星科学連合2016年大会   2016年5月25日   
Correcting biases in the estimates of earthquake clustering parameters caused by short-term missing of aftershocks
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研, Wang, Ting Otago Univ., New Zealand
日本地球惑星科学連合2016年大会   2016年5月25日   
Semiparametric estimates of the long-term background trend, periodicity, and clustering effect in crime data
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研, Mateau, Jorge University Jaume I of Castellon
2016 International Workshop on Spatial and Temporal Modeling from Statistical, Machine Learning and Engineering perspectives (STM2016)   2016年7月22日   
Semiparametric estimates of the long-term background trend, periodicity, and clustering effect in crime data
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研, Mateau, Jorge University Jaume I of Castellon
2016 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM)   2016年8月1日   
Statistical investigations of electromagnetic phenomena associated with earthquakes
韓 鵬 (実講演者) 統数研, 庄 建倉 統数研, 服部 克己 千葉大学
統計関連学会連合大会   2016年9月7日   
Detection and replenishment of missing data in marked point processes
庄 建倉 (実講演者) 統数研
統計関連学会連合大会   2016年9月6日   
Data completeness of the Kumamoto sequence in the JMA catalog and its influence to estimation of ETAS parameters
庄 建倉 (実講演者) 統数研
日本地震学会2016年度秋季大会   2016年10月6日   
Automated Determination of Magnitude and Source Extent of Large Earthquakes
Wang, Dun (実講演者) China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研, Mori, Jim 京都大学防災研, Maeda, Takuto 東大地震研, Tsuruoka, Hiroshi 東大地震研, Xu, Zhao IGGCAS
日本地震学会2016年度秋季大会   2016年10月5日   
Possible coupling of multiple pre-earthquake phenomena of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake(Mw9.0)
韓 鵬 (実講演者) 統数研, 庄 建倉 統数研, 服部 克己 千葉大学
日本地震学会2016年度秋季大会   2016年10月7日   
On the extensions of the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model
庄 建倉 (実講演者) 統数研, 郭 一村 東大地震研, 周 仕勇 北京大学
2016年中国地球科学連合学術年会   2016年10月8日   
An interdisciplinary approach for earthquake modelling and forecasting
Han, Peng (実講演者) 統数研, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研, Hattori, Katsumi 千葉大学, Ogata, Yosihiko 統数研
2016 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)   2016年12月16日   
Nonparametric Modelling of Spatiotemporal Crime Data
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統数研
2016 The 10th ICSA International Conference on Global Growth of Modern Statistics in the 21st Century   2016年12月19日   
Semi-parametric estimates of the long-term background trend, periodicity, and clustering effect in crime deta
庄 建倉 (実講演者) 統計数理研究所, Mateu, Jorge University Jaume Ⅰ of Castellon
科研費研究集会   2017年1月28日   
On the biased estimate of earthquake clustering parameters caused by short-term aftershock missing
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) 統計数理研究所, Wang, Ting Otago Univeristy
10th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei10)   2017年2月22日   
The Magnitude of the Extreme Aftershock
Shcherbakov, Robert (実講演者) Western University Lonndon, Ontario, canada, Zhuang, Jiancang 統計数理研究所, Ogata, Yosihiko 統計数理研究所
10th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei10)   2017年2月22日   
A 2D hidden Markov model for the recurrence patterns of non-volcanic tremors
Wang, Ting (実講演者) Otago Univ., New Zealand, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研, Obara, Kazushige ERI, Univ. of Tokyo, Tsuruoka, Hiroshi ERI, Univ. of Tokyo, Buckby, Jodie Otago University
10th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei10)   2017年2月21日   
Aftershock productivity imaging on main shock fault plane by seismicity triggering modelling
Guo, Yicun (実講演者) Peking Univ., China, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研, Hirata, Naoshi ERI, Univ. of Tokyo
10th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei10)   2017年2月21日   
A Study on Seismicity in the Yunnan Region by Using Multidimental Stress Release Model
Yin, Fengling (実講演者) Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研, Jia, Ke Peking University, Jiang, Changsheng 中国地震局地球物理研究所, Han, Libo 中国地震局地球物理研究所
10th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei10)   2017年2月21日   
Preliminary study of earthquake models incorporating seismo-electromagnetic data
Han, Peng (実講演者) 千葉大学, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研, Hattori, Katsumi 千葉大学, Ogata, Yosihiko 統数研
10th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei10)   2017年2月21日   
An extensive study of clustering features of seismicity in Italy during 2005 to 2016
Zhuang, Jiancang (実講演者) ISM, Guo, Yicun ERI, the University of Tokyo, Murru, Maura INGV, Italy, Falcone, Giuseppe INGV, Italy, Matteo, Taroni INGV, Italy, Rodolfo, Console INGV, Italy, Elisa, Tinti INGV, Italy
EGU General Assembly 2017   2017年4月25日   
The network adjustment aimed for the campaigned gravity survey using a Bayesian approach: methodology and model test
Chen, Shi (実講演者) 中国地震局地球物理研究所, Liao, Xu 中国地震局地球物理研究所, Ma, Hongsheng 中国地震局地球物理研究所, Zhou, Longquan 中国地震局地球物理研究所, Wang, Xingzhou 中国地震局地球物理研究所, Zhuang, Jiancang ISM
EGU General Assembly 2017   2017年4月26日   

競争的資金等の研究課題

 
地震活動の統計的なモデルリングの高度化
科研費基盤研究(C)
研究期間: 2013年4月 - 2015年3月    代表者: 庄 建倉
固体地球科学に資する次世代型データ同化法の創出
科研費基盤研究(B)
研究期間: 2014年4月 - 2016年3月    代表者: 長尾 大道 東京大学地震研究所
固体地球科学に資する次世代型データ同化法の創出
科研費基盤研究(B)
研究期間: 2014年4月 - 2017年3月    代表者: 長尾 大道 東京大学地震研究所