Particle-tracking experiments were performed to infer the distribution of larvae of the Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) and to detect effects of transport environment on sardine recruitment, using the output of a high-resolution ocean general circulation model and observed data of sardine spawning grounds during 1978-2004. By the 60th day following spawning, approximately 50% of the larvae had been transported to the Kuroshio Extension (KE). Whereas the spawning period and grounds changed markedly in relation to the stock level, the proportion of larvae transported to the KE remained relatively constant and no significant correlations were found between sardine recruitment and the transport proportion. Instead, the recruitment was found to be correlated with physical parameters including the mixed layer depth and the sea surface temperature along several major transport trajectories of sardine larvae. The correlations were most significant for the trajectories in the region 0.5 degrees south to 1 degrees north of the Kuroshio axis (defined as the location of velocity maxima at each longitude) and for larvae spawned in February and March during the high stock period (1978-94), and for larvae spawned in March and April during the low stock period (1995-2004).