論文

査読有り 本文へのリンクあり
2018年11月10日

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

The Lancet
  • Daniel Dicker
  • Grant Nguyen
  • Degu Abate
  • Kalkidan Hassen Abate
  • Solomon M. Abay
  • Cristiana Abbafati
  • Nooshin Abbasi
  • Hedayat Abbastabar
  • Foad Abd-Allah
  • Jemal Abdela
  • Ahmed Abdelalim
  • Omar Abdel-Rahman
  • Alireza Abdi
  • Ibrahim Abdollahpour
  • Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader
  • Ahmed Abdulahi Abdurahman
  • Haftom Temesgen Abebe
  • Molla Abebe
  • Zegeye Abebe
  • Teshome Abuka Abebo
  • Victor Aboyans
  • Haftom Niguse Abraha
  • Aklilu Roba Abrham
  • Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad
  • Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh
  • Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi
  • Pawan Acharya
  • Oladimeji M. Adebayo
  • Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji
  • Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin
  • Victor Adekanmbi
  • Olatunji O. Adetokunboh
  • Beyene Meressa Adhena
  • Tara Ballav Adhikari
  • Mina G. Adib
  • Arsène Kouablan Adou
  • Jose C. Adsuar
  • Mohsen Afarideh
  • Ashkan Afshin
  • Gina Agarwal
  • Rakesh Aggarwal
  • Sargis Aghasi Aghayan
  • Sutapa Agrawal
  • Anurag Agrawal
  • Mehdi Ahmadi
  • Alireza Ahmadi
  • Hamid Ahmadieh
  • Mohamed Lemine Cheikh Brahim Ahmed
  • Sayem Ahmed
  • Muktar Beshir Ahmed
  • Amani Nidhal Aichour
  • Ibtihel Aichour
  • Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour
  • Ali S. Akanda
  • Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari
  • Mohammed Akibu
  • Rufus Olusola Akinyemi
  • Tomi Akinyemiju
  • Nadia Akseer
  • Fares Alahdab
  • Ziyad Al-Aly
  • Khurshid Alam
  • Animut Alebel
  • Alicia V. Aleman
  • Kefyalew Addis Alene
  • Ayman Al-Eyadhy
  • Raghib Ali
  • Mehran Alijanzadeh
  • Reza Alizadeh-Navaei
  • Syed Mohamed Aljunid
  • Ala’A Alkerwi
  • François Alla
  • Peter Allebeck
  • Christine A. Allen
  • Jordi Alonso
  • Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi
  • Ubai Alsharif
  • Khalid Altirkawi
  • Nelson Alvis-Guzman
  • Azmeraw T. Amare
  • Erfan Amini
  • Walid Ammar
  • Yaw Ampem Amoako
  • Nahla Hamed Anber
  • Catalina Liliana Andrei
  • Sofia Androudi
  • Megbaru Debalkie Animut
  • Mina Anjomshoa
  • Degefaye Zelalem Anlay
  • Hossein Ansari
  • Ansariadi Ansariadi
  • Mustafa Geleto Ansha
  • Carl Abelardo T. Antonio
  • Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah
  • Olatunde Aremu
  • Habtamu Abera Areri
  • Johan Ärnlöv
  • Megha Arora
  • Al Artaman
  • Krishna K. Aryal
  • 全て表示

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開始ページ
1684
終了ページ
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研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31891-9

© 2018 The Author(s). Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31891-9
PubMed
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30496102
Web of Science
https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=JSTA_CEL&SrcApp=J_Gate_JST&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=WOS:000449710900003&DestApp=WOS_CPL
Scopus
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85056148226&origin=inward 本文へのリンクあり
Scopus Citedby
https://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85056148226&origin=inward
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31891-9
  • ISSN : 0140-6736
  • eISSN : 1474-547X
  • PubMed ID : 30496102
  • SCOPUS ID : 85056148226
  • Web of Science ID : WOS:000449710900003

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