論文

査読有り
2010年8月

Outlook of the World Steel Cycle Based on the Stock and Flow Dynamics

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
  • Hiroki Hatayama
  • ,
  • Ichiro Daigo
  • ,
  • Yasunari Matsuno
  • ,
  • Yoshihiro Adachi

44
16
開始ページ
6457
終了ページ
6463
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1021/es100044n
出版者・発行元
AMER CHEMICAL SOC

We present a comprehensive analysis of steel use in the future compiled using dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) A dynamic MFA for 42 countries depicted the global in-use stock and flow up to the end of 2005. On the basis of the transition of steel stock for 2005, the growth of future steel stock was then estimated considering the economic growth for every country. Future steel demand was estimated using dynamic analysis under the new concept of "stocks drive flows" The significant results follow World steel stock reached 127 billion t in 2005, and has doubled in the last 25 years. The world stock in 2005 mainly consisted of construction (60%) and vehicles (10%). Stock in these end uses will reach 55 billion t in 2050, driven by a 10-fold increase in Asia Steel demand will reach 18 billion t in 2025, then slightly decrease, and rise again by replacement of buildings The forecast of demand clearly represents the industrial shift; at first the increase is dominated by construction, and then, after 2025, demand for construction decreases and demand for vehicles increases instead This study thus provides the dynamic mechanism of steel stock and flow toward the future, which contributes to the design of sustainable steel use

Web of Science ® 被引用回数 : 145

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1021/es100044n
Web of Science
https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=JSTA_CEL&SrcApp=J_Gate_JST&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=WOS:000280727400072&DestApp=WOS_CPL
URL
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-77956517761&partnerID=MN8TOARS
URL
http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9830-3816
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1021/es100044n
  • ISSN : 0013-936X
  • ORCIDのPut Code : 14255937
  • SCOPUS ID : 77956517761
  • Web of Science ID : WOS:000280727400072

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