論文

査読有り
2013年

Sequential data assimilation for streamflow forecasting using a distributed hydrologic model: particle filtering and ensemble Kalman filtering

FLOODS: FROM RISK TO OPPORTUNITY
  • Seong Jin Noh
  • ,
  • Yasuto Tachikawa
  • ,
  • Michiharu Shiiba
  • ,
  • Sunmin Kim

357
開始ページ
341
終了ページ
+
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(国際会議プロシーディングス)
出版者・発行元
INT ASSOC HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES

Accurate streamflow predictions are crucial for mitigating flood damage and addressing operational flood scenarios. In recent years, sequential data assimilation methods have drawn attention due to their potential to handle explicitly the various sources of uncertainty in hydrologic models. In this study, we implement two ensemble-based sequential data assimilation methods for streamflow forecasting via the particle filters and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Among variations of filters, the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) and the lagged regularized particle filter (LRPF) are implemented for a distributed hydrologic model. Two methods are applied for short-term flood forecasting in a small-sized catchment located in Japan (<1000 km(2)). Soil moisture contents are perturbed by process noises and model ensembles are updated by streamflow observation at the outlet. In the case of the LRPF, state updating is performed through a lag-time window to take into account the different response times of hydrologic processes. For different flood events and various forecast lead times, LRPF forecasts outperform EnSRF forecasts and deterministic cases. The EnSRF shows limited performance in both forecasting accuracy and probabilistic intervals, which require introduction of a lag-time window in the filtering processes.

リンク情報
Web of Science
https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=JSTA_CEL&SrcApp=J_Gate_JST&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=WOS:000316508000037&DestApp=WOS_CPL
ID情報
  • ISSN : 0144-7815
  • Web of Science ID : WOS:000316508000037

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