A simple model was set up to predict estrogen concentrations and endocrine disruption risk in the Yodo River, Japan. This catchment spans the conurbations of Kyoto and Osaka and is the main source of drinking water for Osaka City, Japan. From the river survey data (5 separate occasions between 2005 and 2008), a maximum of 32 g per day estrone (E1) load was observed in the most downstream site of the river. Predicted E1 concentrations were in reasonable agreement with the measurements taken at several points within the basin from a series of sampling campaigns. The predicted concentrations exceeded a net estradiol (E2) equivalent of 1 ng L-1 on only a few occasions, suggesting that only limited endocrine disruption phenomena in fish along the Yodo River is likely. The model was then used to examine the impact on estrogen concentrations and endocrine disruption of a number of different scenarios. It was found that in-river biodegradation had little effect on predicted concentrations and the outcome of endocrine disruption along the catchment. However, reduced sewage treatment removal, as can be experienced in winter in Japan, led to levels of 3.1 ng L-1 E2 equivalents being possible. The reduced river flow in winter in Japan exacerbates the situation as it offers less dilution. It was found that the application of the ozonation process as a tertiary sewage treatment in winter could prevent this higher risk endocrine disruption situation.