論文

国際誌
2020年2月4日

The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights.

Journal of clinical medicine
  • Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Tetsuro Kobayashi
  • Yichi Yang
  • Katsuma Hayashi
  • Takeshi Miyama
  • Ryo Kinoshita
  • Natalie M Linton
  • Sung-Mok Jung
  • Baoyin Yuan
  • Ayako Suzuki
  • Andrei R Akhmetzhanov
  • 全て表示

9
2
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
DOI
10.3390/jcm9020419

From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)-the actual risk of death among all infected individuals-is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957-1958.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020419
PubMed
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32033064
PubMed Central
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7074297
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.3390/jcm9020419
  • PubMed ID : 32033064
  • PubMed Central 記事ID : PMC7074297

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