論文

2021年

Effects of Hot Nights on Mortality in Southern Europe

Epidemiology
  • Dominic Royé
  • ,
  • Francesco Sera
  • ,
  • Aurelio Tobías
  • ,
  • Rachel Lowe
  • ,
  • Antonio Gasparrini
  • ,
  • Mathilde Pascal
  • ,
  • Francesca De'Donato
  • ,
  • Baltazar Nunes
  • ,
  • Joao Paulo Teixeira

開始ページ
487
終了ページ
498
記述言語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1097/EDE.0000000000001359

Background: There is strong evidence concerning the impact of heat stress on mortality, particularly from high temperatures. However, few studies to our knowledge emphasize the importance of hot nights, which may prevent necessary nocturnal rest. Objectives: In this study, we use hot-night duration and excess to predict daily cause-specific mortality in summer, using multiple cities across Southern Europe. Methods: We fitted time series regression models to summer cause-specific mortality, including natural, respiratory, and cardiovascular causes, in 11 cities across four countries. We included a distributed lag nonlinear model with lags up to 7 days for hot night duration and excess adjusted by daily mean temperature. We summarized city-specific associations as overall-cumulative exposure-response curves at the country level using meta-analysis. Results: We found positive but generally nonlinear associations between relative risk (RR) of cause-specific mortality and duration and excess of hot nights. RR of duration associated with nonaccidental mortality in Portugal was 1.29 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07, 1.54); other associations were imprecise, but we also found positive city-specific estimates for Rome and Madrid. Risk of hot-night excess ranged from 1.12 (95% CI = 1.05, 1.20) for France to 1.37 (95% CI = 1.26, 1.48) for Portugal. Risk estimates for excess were consistently higher than for duration. Conclusions: This study provides new evidence that, over a wider range of locations, hot night indices are strongly associated with cause-specific deaths. Modeling the impact of thermal characteristics during summer nights on mortality could improve decisionmaking for preventive public health strategies.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001359
PubMed
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33935136
Scopus
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85107085090&origin=inward
Scopus Citedby
https://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85107085090&origin=inward
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001359
  • ISSN : 1044-3983
  • eISSN : 1531-5487
  • PubMed ID : 33935136
  • SCOPUS ID : 85107085090

エクスポート
BibTeX RIS