論文

国際誌
2021年3月15日

Estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 using viral load data.

Epidemics
  • Keisuke Ejima
  • Kwang Su Kim
  • Christina Ludema
  • Ana I Bento
  • Shoya Iwanami
  • Yasuhisa Fujita
  • Hirofumi Ohashi
  • Yoshiki Koizumi
  • Koichi Watashi
  • Kazuyuki Aihara
  • Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Shingo Iwami
  • 全て表示

35
開始ページ
100454
終了ページ
100454
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100454

The incubation period, or the time from infection to symptom onset, of COVID-19 has usually been estimated by using data collected through interviews with cases and their contacts. However, this estimation is influenced by uncertainty in the cases' recall of exposure time. We propose a novel method that uses viral load data collected over time since hospitalization, hindcasting the timing of infection with a mathematical model for viral dynamics. As an example, we used reported data on viral load for 30 hospitalized patients from multiple countries (Singapore, China, Germany, and Korea) and estimated the incubation period. The median, 2.5, and 97.5 percentiles of the incubation period were 5.85 days (95 % CI: 5.05, 6.77), 2.65 days (2.04, 3.41), and 12.99 days (9.98, 16.79), respectively, which are comparable to the values estimated in previous studies. Using viral load to estimate the incubation period might be a useful approach, especially when it is impractical to directly observe the infection event.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100454
PubMed
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33773195
PubMed Central
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7959696
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100454
  • PubMed ID : 33773195
  • PubMed Central 記事ID : PMC7959696

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