論文

査読有り 筆頭著者 責任著者
2022年4月27日

Forecasting Shanghai Container Freight Index: A Deep-Learning-Based Model Experiment

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
  • Enna Hirata
  • ,
  • Takuma Matsuda

10
5
開始ページ
593
終了ページ
593
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.3390/jmse10050593
出版者・発行元
{MDPI} {AG}

With the increasing availability of large datasets and improvements in prediction algorithms, machine-learning-based techniques, particularly deep learning algorithms, are becoming increasingly popular. However, deep-learning algorithms have not been widely applied to predict container freight rates. In this paper, we compare a long short-term memory (LSTM) method and a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) method for forecasting the comprehensive and route-based Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI). The research findings indicate that the LSTM deep learning models outperformed SARIMA models in most of the datasets. For South America and the east coast of the U.S. routes, LSTM could reduce forecasting errors by as much as 85% compared to SARIMA. The SARIMA models performed better than LSTM in predicting freight movements on the west and east Japan routes. The study contributes to the literature in four ways. First, it presents insights for improving forecasting accuracy. Second, it helps relevant parties understand the trends of container freight markets for wiser decision-making. Third, it helps relevant stakeholders understand overall container shipping market trends. Lastly, it can help hedge against the volatility of freight rates.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10050593
共同研究・競争的資金等の研究課題
スマート港湾における船舶・陸上輸送の運用効率化と環境負荷低減に関する研究
URL
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/10/5/593/pdf
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.3390/jmse10050593
  • eISSN : 2077-1312
  • ORCIDのPut Code : 112351923

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