論文

査読有り
2014年1月

Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Assessment on Food Consumption Utilizing a New Scenario Framework

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
  • Tomoko Hasegawa
  • ,
  • Shinichiro Fujimori
  • ,
  • Yonghee Shin
  • ,
  • Kiyoshi Takahashi
  • ,
  • Toshihiko Masui
  • ,
  • Akemi Tanaka

48
1
開始ページ
438
終了ページ
445
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1021/es4034149
出版者・発行元
AMER CHEMICAL SOC

We assessed the impacts of climate change and agricultural autonomous adaptation measures (changes in crop variety and planting dates) on food consumption and risk of hunger considering uncertainties in socioeconomic and climate conditions by using a new scenario framework. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and estimated the impacts through 2050 based on future assumptions of socioeconomic and climate conditions. We used three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as future population and gross domestic products, four Representative, Concentration Pathways as a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and eight General Circulation Models to estimate climate conditions. We found that (i) the adaptation measures are expected to significantly lower the risk of hunger resulting from climate change under various socioeconomic and climate conditions. (ii) population and economic development had a greater impact than climate conditions for risk of hunger at least throughout 2050, but climate change was projected to have notable impacts, even in the strong emission mitigation scenarios. (iii) The impact on hunger risk varied across regions because levels of calorie intake, climate change impacts and land scarcity varied by region.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1021/es4034149
Web of Science
https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=JSTA_CEL&SrcApp=J_Gate_JST&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=WOS:000329548800058&DestApp=WOS_CPL
URL
http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1021/es4034149
  • ISSN : 0013-936X
  • eISSN : 1520-5851
  • ORCIDのPut Code : 35776075
  • SCOPUS ID : 84891788876
  • Web of Science ID : WOS:000329548800058

エクスポート
BibTeX RIS