2016年12月1日
A global computable general equilibrium model coupled with bottom-up energy end-use technology
World Scientific Reference on Natural Resources and Environmental Policy in the Era of Global Change
- ,
- ,
- 巻
- 3
- 号
- 開始ページ
- 273
- 終了ページ
- 302
- 記述言語
- 英語
- 掲載種別
- 論文集(書籍)内論文
- DOI
- 10.1142/9747
- 出版者・発行元
- World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
A global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model integrating detailed energy end-use technologies is developed. This article (1) presents how energy end-use technologies are treated and (2) analyzes the characteristics of the model's behavior. Energy service demand and end-use technologies are explicitly considered, and the share of technologies is determined by a discrete probabilistic function. The proposed model is compared with the traditional model under the same assumptions in scenarios with and without mitigation consistent with the two degree climate mitigation target. Although the results of aggregated energy supply and greenhouse gas emissions are similar, there are three main differences between the two models. First, GDP losses in mitigation scenarios are lower in the detailed technology model (2.8% in 2050) as compared with the aggregated model (3.2%). Second, price elasticity and autonomous energy efficiency improvement are heterogeneous across regions and sectors in the detailed technology model, whereas the traditional aggregated model generally utilizes a single value for each of these variables. Third, the magnitude of emissions reduction and factors (energy intensity and carbon factor reduction) related to climate mitigation also varies among sectors in the detailed technology model.
- リンク情報
- ID情報
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- DOI : 10.1142/9747
- SCOPUS ID : 85019917901