<p>On the Internet, end hosts and network nodes interdependently work to smoothly transfer traffic. Observed traffic dynamics are the result of those interactions among those entities. To manage Internet traffic to provide satisfactory quality services, such dynamics need to be well understood to predict traffic patterns. In particular, some nodes have a function that sends back-pressure signals to backward nodes to reduce their sending rate and mitigate congestion. Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) congestion control in end-hosts also mitigates traffic deviation to eliminate temporary congestion by reducing the TCP sending rate. How these congestion controls mitigate congestion has been extensively investigated. However, these controls only throttle their sending rate but do not reduce traffic volume. Such congestion control fails if congestion is persistent, e.g., for hours, because unsent traffic demand will infinitely accumulate. However, on the actual Internet, even with persistent congestion, such accumulation does not seem to occur. During congestion, users and/or applications tend to reduce their traffic demand in reaction to quality of service (QoS) degradation to avoid negative service experience. We previously estimated that 2% packet loss results in 23% traffic reduction because of this upper-layer reaction [1]. We view this reduction as an upper-layer congestion-avoidance mechanism and construct a closed-loop model of this mechanism, which we call the Upper-Layer Closed-Loop (ULCL) model. We also show that by using ULCL, we can predict the degree of QoS degradation and traffic reduction as an equilibrium of the feedback loop. We applied our model to traffic and packet-loss ratio time series data gathered in an actual network and demonstrate that it effectively estimates actual traffic and packet-loss ratio.</p>