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2020年6月9日

STBM : Stochastic Trading Behavior Model for Financial Markets Based on Long Short-Term Memory

The 34th Annual Conference of the Japanese Society for Artificial Intelligence
  • Masanori HIRANO
  • ,
  • Hiroyasu MATSUSHIMA
  • ,
  • Kiyoshi IZUMI
  • ,
  • Hiroki SAKAJI

2020
開始ページ
1K4-ES-2-04
終了ページ
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究発表ペーパー・要旨(全国大会,その他学術会議)
DOI
10.11517/pjsai.JSAI2020.0_1K4ES204
出版者・発行元
人工知能学会

In this study, we propose a stochastic model for predicting the behavior of financial market traders. First, using real ordering data that includes masked traders' IDs, we cluster the traders and select a recognizable cluster that appears to employ a high-frequency traders' market-making (HFT-MM) strategy. Then, we use an LSTM-based stochastic prediction model to predict the traders' behavior. This model takes the market order book state and a trader's ordering state as input and probabilistically predicts the trader's actions over the next one minute. The results show that our model can outperform both a model that randomly takes action and a conventional deterministic model. Herein, we only analyze limited trader type but, if our model is implemented to all trader types, this will increase the accuracy of predictions for the entire market.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11517/pjsai.JSAI2020.0_1K4ES204
URL
https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/pjsai/JSAI2020/0/JSAI2020_1K4ES204/_article/-char/en 本文へのリンクあり
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.11517/pjsai.JSAI2020.0_1K4ES204

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