<p>In this paper, we propose a CTRIL (Common Trend and Regression with Independent Loss) model to infer latent traffic demand in overloaded links as well as how much it is reduced due to QoS (Quality of Service) degradation. To appropriately provision link bandwidth for such overloaded links, we need to infer how much traffic will increase without QoS degradation. Because original latent traffic demand cannot be observed, we propose a method that compares the other traffic time series of an underloaded link, and by assuming that the latent traffic demands in both overloaded and underloaded are common, and actualized traffic demand in the overloaded link is decreased from common pattern due to the effect of QoS degradation. To realize the method, we developed a CTRIL model on the basis of a state-space model where observed traffic is generated from a latent trend but is decreased by the QoS degradation. By applying the CTRIL model to actual HTTP (Hypertext transfer protocol) traffic and QoS time series data, we reveal that 1% packet loss decreases traffic demand by 12.3%, and the estimated latent traffic demand is larger than the observed one by 23.0%.</p>