論文

査読有り
2021年4月

Steady-state growth

International Finance
  • Emanuel Kohlscheen
  • ,
  • Jouchi Nakajima

24
1
開始ページ
40
終了ページ
52
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1111/infi.12386

We compute steady-state economic growth—defined as the rate of growth that the economy would converge to in the absence of new shocks. As we show, this rate can be computed in real-time by means of a parsimonious time-varying parameter (TVP) vector autoregression model. Our procedure offers a relatively agnostic estimation of benchmark equilibrium growth rates. Estimates show that the steady-state gross domestic product growth rate in the case of the United States has declined from just above 3% per year in the 1990s to 2.4% at present. Results for other six advanced economies and the euro area indicate that the steady-state growth rate, which is consistent with stable inflation and financial conditions, has been relatively stable since 2010 in most cases in spite of a recent slowdown in actual GDP growth rates. In contrast, per capita steady-state growth rates during the last decade were typically lower than in the 1990s.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12386
Scopus
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85098177325&origin=inward
Scopus Citedby
https://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85098177325&origin=inward
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1111/infi.12386
  • ISSN : 1367-0271
  • eISSN : 1468-2362
  • SCOPUS ID : 85098177325

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