論文

査読有り
2014年10月

Bayesian forecasting and portfolio decisions using dynamic dependent sparse factor models

International Journal of Forecasting
  • Xiaocong Zhou
  • ,
  • Jouchi Nakajima
  • ,
  • Mike West

30
4
開始ページ
963
終了ページ
980
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.03.017

We extend the recently introduced latent threshold dynamic models to include dependencies among the dynamic latent factors which underlie multivariate volatility. With an ability to induce time-varying sparsity in factor loadings, these models now also allow time-varying correlations among factors, which may be exploited in order to improve volatility forecasts. We couple multi-period, out-of-sample forecasting with portfolio analysis using standard and novel benchmark neutral portfolios. Detailed studies of stock index and FX time series include: multi-period, out-of-sample forecasting, statistical model comparisons, and portfolio performance testing using raw returns, risk-adjusted returns and portfolio volatility. We find uniform improvements on all measures relative to standard dynamic factor models. This is due to the parsimony of latent threshold models and their ability to exploit between-factor correlations so as to improve the characterization and prediction of volatility. These advances will be of interest to financial analysts, investors and practitioners, as well as to modeling researchers. © 2014 International Institute of Forecasters.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.03.017
Scopus
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=84904868862&origin=inward
Scopus Citedby
https://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=84904868862&origin=inward
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.03.017
  • ISSN : 0169-2070
  • SCOPUS ID : 84904868862

エクスポート
BibTeX RIS