論文

2020年4月

Modeling spatiotemporal distribution of Dipterocarpus turbinatus Gaertn. F in Bangladesh under climate change scenarios

Journal of Sustainable Forestry
  • Kamrul Islam
  • ,
  • Md Farhadur Rahman
  • ,
  • Kazi Nazrul Islam
  • ,
  • Tapan Kumar Nath
  • ,
  • Mohammed Jashimuddin

39
3
開始ページ
221
終了ページ
241
記述言語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1080/10549811.2019.1632721
出版者・発行元
Informa {UK} Limited

Climate change affects plant phenology, spatial distribution, and even extinction of vulnerable species. Dipterocarpus turbinatus, locally known as garjan, is a valuable but vulnerable native tree species of Bangladesh whose spatial distribution under future climate change scenarios is not fully understood. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of present and future climatic scenarios on spatiotemporal distribution of D. turbinatus. We used maximum entropy species distribution modeling to perform the present and future habitat suitability of garjan under different climate scenarios. The representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 were considered for bioclimatic variables from the Global Climate Model–Hadley Global Environment Model 2 Atmosphere-Ocean. The predictive accuracy of the model was more than 97% in both the training and test data. The prediction results suggest that compared to present areas (7624 km2) under moderate habitat class it will be 2755 km2 and 1239 km2, respectively, in 2050 and 2070 under RCP2.6 scenario and decreases more rapidly under RCP8.5 scenario. Besides, the prediction also indicates that the habitat of the species will shift toward the high altitudinal south-eastern corner of the country whereas local extinction might occur in the north-eastern part during 2070.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/10549811.2019.1632721
Scopus
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85067647563&origin=inward
Scopus Citedby
https://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85067647563&origin=inward
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1080/10549811.2019.1632721
  • ISSN : 1054-9811
  • eISSN : 1540-756X
  • ORCIDのPut Code : 58630603
  • SCOPUS ID : 85067647563

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