BackgroundAlthough the feasibility of randomized trials for investigating the long-term association between oral health and cognitive decline is low, deriving causal inferences from observational data is challenging. We aimed to investigate the association between poor oral status and subjective cognitive complaints (SCC) using fixed-effects model to eliminate the confounding effect of unobserved time-invariant factors.MethodsWe used data from Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES) which was conducted in 2010, 2013, and 2016. β regression coefficients (95% confidence intervals) were calculated using fixed-effects models to determine the effect of deteriorating oral status on developing SCC. Onset of SCC was evaluated using the Kihon Checklist-Cognitive function score. Four oral status variables were used: awareness of swallowing difficulty, decline in masticatory function, dry mouth, and number of teeth.Results13,594 participants (55.8% women) without SCC at baseline were included. The mean age was 72.4 (SD = 5.1) for men and 72.4 (SD=4.9) for women. Within the 6-year follow-up, 26.6% of men and 24.9% of women developed SCC. The probability of developing SCC was significantly higher when participants acquired swallowing difficulty (β= 0.088; 0.065-0.111 for men, β= 0.077; 0.057-0.097 for women), decline in masticatory function (β=0.039; 0.021-0.057 for men, β= 0.030; 0.013-0.046 for women), dry mouth (β= 0.026; 0.005-0.048 for men, β= 0.064; 0.045-0.083 for women), and tooth loss (β= 0.043; 0.001-0.085 for men, β= 0.058; 0.015-0.102 for women).ConclusionsThe findings suggest that good oral health needs to be maintained to prevent the development of SCC, which increases the risk for future dementia.