Potential risk factors associated with future osteoporotic vertebral fracture (OVF) were prospectively investigated in middle-aged and older adult women. We enrolled 197 female patients aged ≥50 years who were scheduled to undergo surgery for lower-extremity degenerative diseases. Patient anthropometric and muscle strength measurements, a bone mineral density measurement of the lumbar spine (L-BMD), and full-spine standing radiographs to examine the presence of old OVFs and spinopelvic sagittal parameters were obtained preoperatively. We evaluated 141 patients who underwent full-spine standing radiographs three years postoperatively to identify new OVFs. We excluded 54 patients who did not undergo a second radiographic examination and 2 with new traumatic OVFs. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors associated with new non-traumatic OVF occurrence. Ten (7.1%) patients developed new non-traumatic OVFs during the study period (fracture group). The fracture group had less abdominal trunk muscle strength, lower L-BMD, smaller sacral slopes, and larger pelvic tilt than the non-fracture group. The fracture group showed a higher prevalence of old OVFs preoperatively than the non-fracture group. Abdominal trunk muscle weakness, low L-BMD, and the presence of old OVFs were identified as significant risk factors for OVF occurrence. In middle-aged or older adult women, abdominal trunk muscle weakness, low L-BMD, and old OVFs were associated with future OVF.