AIM: To clarify factors associated with changes in care needs level and mortality among disabled older people receiving home medical care over a period of 2.5 years. METHODS: The study included 179 participants, aged ≥65 years, receiving home medical care, who consented to join the Osaka Home Care Registry study. The main outcome was changes in the care needs level of participants eligible for the long-term care insurance system. We investigated the association of changes in care needs level with basic characteristics and care-receiving status. RESULTS: At the 2.5-year follow up, 20.0% of participants showed deteriorated levels, and 41.8% of participants died. In multiple logistic regression, age (odds ratio [OR] 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.21; P = 0.051) and bone joint diseases (OR 0.34, CI 0.09-1.22; P = 0.098) were possible risks associated with deterioration of the care needs level. Male sex (OR 3.28, CI 0.91-11.74; P = 0.068) was a possible risk factor for mortality, and lower serum albumin (OR 0.22, CI 0.07-0.73) was a significant risk factor for mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We clarified the different factors associated with deterioration of the care needs level and mortality among disabled older people. Old age and bone joint diseases might be predictive factors for the further deterioration of independence of physical activity, and a low serum albumin level is considered to be strongly associated with increased mortality. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 1198-1205.