論文

査読有り
2021年5月14日

The Relationship between River Flow Regimes and Climate Indices of ENSO and IOD on Code River, Southern Indonesia

Water
  • Adam Rus Nugroho
  • ,
  • Ichiro Tamagawa
  • ,
  • Morihiro Harada

13
10
開始ページ
1375
終了ページ
1375
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.3390/w13101375
出版者・発行元
MDPI AG

Predicting the streamflow regimes using climate dynamics is important in water resource management. However, in Indonesia, there are few studies targeting climate indices and streamflow. A previous study found difficulty in developing a statistical prediction model for this relationship due to its non-linear nature. This study attempted to address that gap by applying multiple regression (MR) models using second- and third-order polynomial functions to show the non-linear relationship between climate and flow regime indices. First, a correlation analysis was performed to check the variable relationships. There was a good and significant correlation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with the flow regime indices. Secondly, MR models were developed with the same-time variables. The developed model showed that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) had the effect of strongly increasing the high flow in La Niña phases. Finally, time-lagged MRs were developed aiming at forecasting. Lagged MR models with six-month leading climate indices demonstrated a relatively good correlation with the observed data (mostly R > 0.700) with moderate accuracy (root mean square error = 44–51%). It suggests that the forecasting of flow regime may be possible using ENSO and IOD indices.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/w13101375
URL
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/10/1375/pdf
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.3390/w13101375
  • eISSN : 2073-4441
  • ORCIDのPut Code : 144356271

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