2021年5月14日
The Relationship between River Flow Regimes and Climate Indices of ENSO and IOD on Code River, Southern Indonesia
Water
- ,
- ,
- 巻
- 13
- 号
- 10
- 開始ページ
- 1375
- 終了ページ
- 1375
- 記述言語
- 英語
- 掲載種別
- 研究論文(学術雑誌)
- DOI
- 10.3390/w13101375
- 出版者・発行元
- MDPI AG
Predicting the streamflow regimes using climate dynamics is important in water resource management. However, in Indonesia, there are few studies targeting climate indices and streamflow. A previous study found difficulty in developing a statistical prediction model for this relationship due to its non-linear nature. This study attempted to address that gap by applying multiple regression (MR) models using second- and third-order polynomial functions to show the non-linear relationship between climate and flow regime indices. First, a correlation analysis was performed to check the variable relationships. There was a good and significant correlation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with the flow regime indices. Secondly, MR models were developed with the same-time variables. The developed model showed that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) had the effect of strongly increasing the high flow in La Niña phases. Finally, time-lagged MRs were developed aiming at forecasting. Lagged MR models with six-month leading climate indices demonstrated a relatively good correlation with the observed data (mostly R > 0.700) with moderate accuracy (root mean square error = 44–51%). It suggests that the forecasting of flow regime may be possible using ENSO and IOD indices.
- ID情報
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- DOI : 10.3390/w13101375
- eISSN : 2073-4441
- ORCIDのPut Code : 144356271