論文

査読有り
2018年6月1日

Estimating the actual importation risk of dengue virus infection among Japanese travelers

PLoS ONE
  • Baoyin Yuan
  • ,
  • Hiroshi Nishiura

13
6
開始ページ
e0198734
終了ページ
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0198734
出版者・発行元
Public Library of Science

Background Frequent international travel facilitates the global spread of dengue fever. Japan has experienced an increasing number of imported case notifications of dengue virus (DENV) infection, mostly arising from Japanese travelers visiting South and Southeast Asian countries. This has led an autochthonous dengue outbreak in 2014 in Japan. The present study aimed to infer the risk of DENV infection among Japanese travelers to Asian countries, thereby obtaining an actual estimate of the number of DENV infections among travelers. Methodology/Principal findings For eight destination countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, India, Malaysia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Singapore), we collected age-dependent seroepidemiological data. We also retrieved the number of imported cases, who were notified to the Japanese government, as well as the total number of travelers to each destination. Using a mathematical model, we estimated the force of infection in each destination country with seroepidemiological data while jointly inferring the reporting coverage of DENV infections among Japanese travelers from datasets of imported cases and travelers. Assuming that travelers had a risk of infection that was identical to that of the local population during travel, the reporting coverage of dengue appeared to range from 0.6% to 4.3%. The risk of infection per journey ranged from 0.02% to 0.44%. Conclusions/Significance We found that the actual number of imported cases of DENV infection among Japanese travelers could be more than 20 times the notified number of imported cases. This finding may be attributed to the substantial proportion of asymptomatic and under-ascertained infections.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0198734
PubMed
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29924819
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0198734
  • ISSN : 1932-6203
  • PubMed ID : 29924819
  • SCOPUS ID : 85048790125

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