論文

査読有り
2017年12月

JOINT ESTIMATION OF THE TRANSMISSIBILITY AND SEVERITY OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN REAL TIME

JOURNAL OF BIOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
  • Yusuke Asai
  • ,
  • Hiroshi Nishiura

25
4
開始ページ
587
終了ページ
603
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1142/S0218339017400022
出版者・発行元
WORLD SCIENTIFIC PUBL CO PTE LTD

The effective reproduction number R(t), the average number of secondary cases that are generated by a single primary case at calendar time t, plays a critical role in interpreting the temporal transmission dynamics of an infectious disease epidemic, while the case fatality risk (CFR) is an indispensable measure of the severity of disease. In many instances, R(t) is estimated using the reported number of cases (i.e., the incidence data), but such report often does not arrive on time, and moreover, the rate of diagnosis could change as a function of time, especially if we handle diseases that involve substantial number of asymptomatic and mild infections and large outbreaks that go beyond the local capacity of reporting. In addition, CFR is well known to be prone to ascertainment bias, often erroneously overestimated. In this paper, we propose a joint estimation method of R(t) and CFR of Ebola virus disease (EVD), analyzing the early epidemic data of EVD from March to October 2014 and addressing the ascertainment bias in real time. To assess the reliability of the proposed method, coverage probabilities were computed. When ascertainment effort plays a role in interpreting the epidemiological dynamics, it is useful to analyze not only reported (confirmed or suspected) cases, but also the temporal distribution of deceased individuals to avoid any strong impact of time dependent changes in diagnosis and reporting.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218339017400022
Web of Science
https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=JSTA_CEL&SrcApp=J_Gate_JST&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=WOS:000418693000003&DestApp=WOS_CPL
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1142/S0218339017400022
  • ISSN : 0218-3390
  • eISSN : 1793-6470
  • Web of Science ID : WOS:000418693000003

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