論文

査読有り
2013年3月

Vaccination and Clinical Severity: Is the Effectiveness of Contact Tracing and Case Isolation Hampered by Past Vaccination?

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
  • Kenji Mizumoto
  • ,
  • Keisuke Ejima
  • ,
  • Taro Yamamoto
  • ,
  • Hiroshi Nishiura

10
3
開始ページ
816
終了ページ
829
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.3390/ijerph10030816
出版者・発行元
MDPI AG

While contact tracing and case isolation are considered as the first choice of interventions against a smallpox bioterrorist event, their effectiveness under vaccination is questioned, because not only susceptibility of host and infectiousness of case but also the risk of severe clinical manifestations among cases is known to be reduced by vaccine-induced immunity, thereby potentially delaying the diagnosis and increasing mobility among vaccinated cases. We employed a multi-type stochastic epidemic model, aiming to assess the feasibility of contact tracing and case isolation in a partially vaccinated population and identify data gaps. We computed four epidemiological outcome measures, i.e., (i) the threshold of a major epidemic under the interventions; (ii) the expected total number of cases; (iii) the probability of extinction, and (iv) the expected duration of an outbreak, demonstrating that all of these outcomes critically depend on the clinical impact of past vaccination on the diagnosis and movement of vaccinated cases. We discuss that, even in the absence of smallpox in the present day, one should consider the way to empirically quantify the delay in case detection and an increase in the frequency of contacts among previously vaccinated cases compared to unvaccinated during the early stage of an epidemic so that the feasibility of contact tracing and case isolation in a vaccinated population can be explicitly assessed.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph10030816
Web of Science
https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=JSTA_CEL&SrcApp=J_Gate_JST&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=WOS:000316608200006&DestApp=WOS_CPL
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.3390/ijerph10030816
  • ISSN : 1660-4601
  • Web of Science ID : WOS:000316608200006

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