論文

国際誌
2020年2月17日

Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data.

Journal of clinical medicine
  • Natalie M Linton
  • ,
  • Tetsuro Kobayashi
  • ,
  • Yichi Yang
  • ,
  • Katsuma Hayashi
  • ,
  • Andrei R Akhmetzhanov
  • ,
  • Sung-Mok Jung
  • ,
  • Baoyin Yuan
  • ,
  • Ryo Kinoshita
  • ,
  • Hiroshi Nishiura

9
2
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.3390/jcm9020538

The geographic spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections from the epicenter of Wuhan, China, has provided an opportunity to study the natural history of the recently emerged virus. Using publicly available event-date data from the ongoing epidemic, the present study investigated the incubation period and other time intervals that govern the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 infections. Our results show that the incubation period falls within the range of 2-14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution. The mean time from illness onset to hospital admission (for treatment and/or isolation) was estimated at 3-4 days without truncation and at 5-9 days when right truncated. Based on the 95th percentile estimate of the incubation period, we recommend that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days. The median time delay of 13 days from illness onset to death (17 days with right truncation) should be considered when estimating the COVID-19 case fatality risk.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020538
PubMed
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32079150
PubMed Central
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7074197
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.3390/jcm9020538
  • PubMed ID : 32079150
  • PubMed Central 記事ID : PMC7074197

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