2021年1月
Identifying geographic areas at risk of rubella epidemics in Japan using seroepidemiological data.
International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases
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- 巻
- 102
- 号
- 開始ページ
- 203
- 終了ページ
- 211
- 記述言語
- 英語
- 掲載種別
- 研究論文(学術雑誌)
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.1458
OBJECTIVE: Even with relatively high vaccination coverage, Japan experienced rubella epidemics in 2012-2014 and 2018-2019, which were fueled by untraced imported cases. We aimed to develop a risk map for rubella epidemics in Japan by geographic location via analysis of seroepidemiological data and accounting for the abundance of foreign visitors. METHODS: Geographic age distribution and seroprevalence were used to compute the age- and sex-dependent next-generation matrix in each region. We computed the probability of a major epidemic using the assumed number of untraced imported rubella cases proportionally modeled to the number of foreign travelers. RESULTS: Risks of a major epidemic were high in areas with capital cities, while areas with a greater fraction of older people yielded smaller effective reproduction numbers, a lower volume of foreign travelers, and thus a lower probability of a major epidemic. The volume of susceptible adult males was larger in urban geographic regions, having a greater number of foreign travelers than remote areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are consistent with the observation of multiple large clusters of rubella cases in urban areas during 2012-2014 and 2018-2019. Should a future rubella epidemic occur, it will likely be in geographic areas with capital cities.
- リンク情報
- ID情報
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- DOI : 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.1458
- PubMed ID : 33010463
- PubMed Central 記事ID : PMC7526531