1996年4月
簡略化した大気循環モデルにおける予測可能性の時間変動
京都大学防災研究所年報
- ,
- 巻
- 号
- 39
- 開始ページ
- 151
- 終了ページ
- 159
- 記述言語
- 日本語
- 掲載種別
- 出版者・発行元
- 京都大学防災研究所
Relations between temporal variations in the atmospheric predictability and quasi-stationary (QS) states, such as weather regimes, is investigated both with low- dimensional dynamical systems and with a simplified atmospheric circulation model introduced by Legras and Ghil (1985).As a measure of the predictability, we use the Lorenz index a, introduced by Lorenz (1965), which gives an ensemble average of the perturbation growth rate for a prescribed time interval. As to QS states, we apply the concept established by Mukougawa (1988).In the one-dimensional dynamical system there is the obvious relation that a increases monotonically during the QS state.However, in the multi-dimensional dynamical system there is no obvious relation between α and the QS state. Considering the trajectory only on the attractor, each QS state has its own relationship. In some chaotic solutions of the Legras and Ghil model there is the same relation as in the one-dimensional dynamical system.
- リンク情報
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- CiNii Articles
- http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/120001178973
- CiNii Books
- http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ncid/AN00027809
- ID情報
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- ISSN : 0386-412X
- CiNii Articles ID : 120001178973
- CiNii Books ID : AN00027809
- identifiers.cinii_nr_id : 1000030167027