MISC

1996年4月

簡略化した大気循環モデルにおける予測可能性の時間変動

京都大学防災研究所年報
  • 山根 省三
  • ,
  • 余田 成男

39
開始ページ
151
終了ページ
159
記述言語
日本語
掲載種別
出版者・発行元
京都大学防災研究所

Relations between temporal variations in the atmospheric predictability and quasi-stationary (QS) states, such as weather regimes, is investigated both with low- dimensional dynamical systems and with a simplified atmospheric circulation model introduced by Legras and Ghil (1985).As a measure of the predictability, we use the Lorenz index a, introduced by Lorenz (1965), which gives an ensemble average of the perturbation growth rate for a prescribed time interval. As to QS states, we apply the concept established by Mukougawa (1988).In the one-dimensional dynamical system there is the obvious relation that a increases monotonically during the QS state.However, in the multi-dimensional dynamical system there is no obvious relation between α and the QS state. Considering the trajectory only on the attractor, each QS state has its own relationship. In some chaotic solutions of the Legras and Ghil model there is the same relation as in the one-dimensional dynamical system.

リンク情報
CiNii Articles
http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/120001178973
CiNii Books
http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ncid/AN00027809
ID情報
  • ISSN : 0386-412X
  • CiNii Articles ID : 120001178973
  • CiNii Books ID : AN00027809
  • identifiers.cinii_nr_id : 1000030167027

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