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査読有り 本文へのリンクあり
2006年10月

A Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system for the prediction of river stage dynamics

Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly
  • Muhammad Aqil
  • ,
  • Ichiro Kita
  • ,
  • Akira Yano
  • ,
  • Soichi Nishiyama

40
4
開始ページ
369
終了ページ
378
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
DOI
10.6090/jarq.40.369
出版者・発行元
JAPAN INT RESEARCH CENTER AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES

An algorithm for real-time prediction of river stage dynamics using a Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system is presented in this paper. The system is trained incrementally each time step and is used to predict one-step and multi-step ahead of river stages. The number of input variables that were considered in the analysis was determined using two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation between the variables. Effectiveness of the identification technique was demonstrated by a simulation study on the river stage of the Cilalawi River in Indonesia. The numerical results of the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy modeling method were compared with the results of a conventional linear regression model. Through inspection of the results it was found that the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy approach was more accurate in predicting one-step and multi-step ahead of river stage dynamics than the conventional multiple linear regression approach. The Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system was able to make a proper fuzzy rule from the training data set, which might be considered as one of the main drawbacks of the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system. Yet, more substantial improvement certainly should be pursued through further research to improve the forecast results at greater lead times.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.6090/jarq.40.369
Web of Science
https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=JSTA_CEL&SrcApp=J_Gate_JST&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=WOS:000243702100010&DestApp=WOS_CPL
Scopus
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=33750682739&origin=inward 本文へのリンクあり
Scopus Citedby
https://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=33750682739&origin=inward
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.6090/jarq.40.369
  • ISSN : 0021-3551
  • eISSN : 0021-3551
  • SCOPUS ID : 33750682739
  • Web of Science ID : WOS:000243702100010

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