論文

査読有り
2017年3月

A scheme for forecasting severe space weather

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS
  • N. Balan
  • ,
  • Y. Ebihara
  • ,
  • R. Skoug
  • ,
  • K. Shiokawa
  • ,
  • I. S. Batista
  • ,
  • S. Tulasi Ram
  • ,
  • Y. Omura
  • ,
  • T. Nakamura
  • ,
  • M. -C. Fok

122
3
開始ページ
2824
終了ページ
2835
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1002/2016JA023853
出版者・発行元
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION

A scheme is suggested and tested for forecasting severe space weather (SvSW) using solar wind velocity (V) and the north-south component (B-z) of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) measured using the ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) satellite from 1998 to 2016. SvSW has caused all known electric power outages and telegraph system failures. Earlier SvSW events such as the Carrington event of 1859, Quebec event of 1989 and an event in 1958 are included with information from the literature. Dst storms are used as references to identify 89 major space weather events (DstMin <=-100 nT) in 1998-2016. The coincidence of high coronal mass ejection (CME) front (or CME shock) velocity Delta V (sudden increase in V over the background by over 275km/s) and sufficiently large B-z southward at the time of the Delta V increase is associated with SvSW; and their product (Delta VxB(z)) is found to exhibit a large negative spike at the speed increase. Such a product (Delta VxB(z)) exceeding a threshold seems suitable for forecasting SvSW. However, the coincidence of high V (not containing Delta V) and large B-z southward does not correspond to SvSW, indicating the importance of the impulsive action of large B-z southward and high Delta V coming through when they coincide. The need for the coincidence is verified using the CRCM (Comprehensive Ring Current Model), which produces extreme Dst storms (<Dst(MP)> < -250 nT) characterizing SvSW when there is coincidence.
Plain Language Summary Severe space weather has been known to affect the society by damaging satellite systems and electric power grids. For example, a space weather of the type that occurred in September 1859, if occurs at present times, can cause very serious damages costing up to 1 to 2 trillion U.S. dollars. It is therefore important to study space weather and understand what determines the severity of space weather and whether it can be forecasted and predicted. In this paper we show that the coincidence of the speed of solar storms and southward orientation of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field is responsible for severe space weather at the Earth, and it can be forecasted by 35 min using the data from a satellite that stays at 220 x radius of Earth away from the Earth.


リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023853
Web of Science
https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=JSTA_CEL&SrcApp=J_Gate_JST&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=WOS:000399710900005&DestApp=WOS_CPL
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1002/2016JA023853
  • ISSN : 2169-9380
  • eISSN : 2169-9402
  • Web of Science ID : WOS:000399710900005

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