2018年11月
Understanding the water cycle over the upper Tarim Basin: retrospecting the estimated discharge bias to atmospheric variables and model structure
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
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- 巻
- 22
- 号
- 11
- 開始ページ
- 6087
- 終了ページ
- 6108
- 記述言語
- 英語
- 掲載種別
- 研究論文(学術雑誌)
- DOI
- 10.5194/hess-22-6087-2018
- 出版者・発行元
- COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
The bias in atmospheric variables and that in model computation are two major causes of failures in discharge estimation. Attributing the bias in discharge estimation becomes difficult if the forcing bias cannot be evaluated and excluded in advance in places lacking qualified meteorological observations, especially in cold and mountainous areas (e.g., the upper Tarim Basin). In this study, we proposed an Organizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic EcosystEms (ORCHIDEE)-Budyko framework which helps identify the bias range from the two sources (i.e., forcing and model structure) with a set of analytical approaches. The latest version of the land surface model ORCHIDEE was used to provide reliable discharge simulations based on the most improved forcing inputs. The Budyko approach was then introduced to attribute the discharge bias to two sources with prescribed assumptions. Results show that, as the forcing biases, the water inputs (rainfall, snowfall or glacier melt) are very likely underestimated for the Tarim headwater catchments (-43.2% to 21.0 %). Meanwhile, the potential evapotranspiration is unrealistically high over the upper Yarkand and the upper Hotan River (1240.4 and 1153.7(mm) yr(-1), respectively). Determined by the model structure, the bias in actual evapotranspiration is possible but not the only contributor to the discharge underestimation (overestimated by up to 105.8% for the upper Aksu River). Based on a simple scaling approach, we estimated the water consumption by human intervention ranging from 213.50X10(8) to 300.58X10(8) m(3) yr(-1) at the Alar gauge station, which is another bias source in the current version of ORCHIDEE. This study succeeded in ret-rospecting the bias from the discharge estimation to multiple bias sources of the atmospheric variables and the model structure. The framework provides a unique method for evaluating the regional water cycle and its biases with our current knowledge of observational uncertainties.
- リンク情報
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- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6087-2018
- Web of Science
- https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=JSTA_CEL&SrcApp=J_Gate_JST&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=WOS:000451400700001&DestApp=WOS_CPL
- 共同研究・競争的資金等の研究課題
- 気候変動適応策の総合的な費用便益分析と水関連災害の適応策の費用便益分析
- URL
- http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5693-197X
- ID情報
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- DOI : 10.5194/hess-22-6087-2018
- ISSN : 1027-5606
- eISSN : 1607-7938
- ORCIDのPut Code : 51136912
- Web of Science ID : WOS:000451400700001