論文

査読有り
2011年11月

A consistent nonparametric test for nonlinear causality-Specification in time series regression

JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
  • Yoshihiko Nishiyama
  • ,
  • Kohtaro Hitomi
  • ,
  • Yoshinori Kawasaki
  • ,
  • Kiho Jeong

165
1
開始ページ
112
終了ページ
127
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.05.010
出版者・発行元
ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA

Since the pioneering work by Granger (1969), many authors have proposed tests of causality between economic time series. Most of them are concerned only with "linear causality in mean", or if a series linearly affects the (conditional) mean of the other series. It is no doubt of primary interest, but dependence between series may be nonlinear, and/or not only through the conditional mean. Indeed conditional heteroskedastic models are widely studied recently. The purpose of this paper is to propose a nonparametric test for possibly nonlinear causality. Taking into account that dependence in higher order moments are becoming an important issue especially in financial time series, we also consider a test for causality up to the Kth conditional moment. Statistically, we can also view this test as a nonparametric omitted variable test in time series regression. A desirable property of the test is that it has nontrivial power against T(1/2)-local alternatives, where T is the sample size. Also, we can form a test statistic accordingly if we have some knowledge on the alternative hypothesis. Furthermore, we show that the test statistic includes most of the omitted variable test statistics as special cases asymptotically. The null asymptotic distribution is not normal, but we can easily calculate the critical regions by simulation. Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed test has good size and power properties. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.05.010
Web of Science
https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=JSTA_CEL&SrcApp=J_Gate_JST&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=WOS:000296171300010&DestApp=WOS_CPL
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.05.010
  • ISSN : 0304-4076
  • Web of Science ID : WOS:000296171300010

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