論文

査読有り 筆頭著者
2020年7月2日

Climate change adaptation cost and residual damage to global crop production

Climate Research
  • T Iizumi
  • ,
  • Z Shen
  • ,
  • J Furuya
  • ,
  • T Koizumi
  • ,
  • G Furuhashi
  • ,
  • W Kim
  • ,
  • M Nishimori

80
3
開始ページ
203
終了ページ
218
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.3354/cr01605
出版者・発行元
Inter-Research Science Center

Adaptation will be essential in many sectors, including agriculture, as a certain level of warming is anticipated even after substantial climate mitigation. However, global adaptation costs and adaptation limits in agriculture are understudied. Here, we estimate the global adaptation cost and residual damage (climate change impacts after adaptation) for maize, rice, wheat and soybean using a global gridded crop model and empirical production cost models. Producers require additional expenditures under climate change to produce the same crop yields that would be achieved without climate change, and this difference is defined as the adaptation cost. On a decadal mean basis, the undiscounted global cost of climate change (adaptation cost plus residual damage) for the crops are projected to increase with warming from 63 US$ billion (B) at 1.5°C to $80 B at 2°C and to $128 B at 3°C per year. The adaptation cost gradually increases in absolute terms, but the share decreases from 84% of the cost of climate change ($53 B) at 1.5°C to 76% ($61 B) at 2°C and to 61% ($8 B) at 3°C. The residual damage increases from 16% ($10 B) at 1.5°C to 24% ($19 B) at 2°C and to 39% ($50 B) at 3°C. Once maintaining yields becomes difficult due to the biological limits of crops or decreased profitability, producers can no longer bear adaptation costs, and residual damages increase. Our estimates offer a basis to identify the gap between global adaptation needs and the funds available for adaptation.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01605
共同研究・競争的資金等の研究課題
気候変動による穀物生産への影響評価と適応策の費用便益分析
URL
https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c080p203.pdf
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.3354/cr01605
  • ISSN : 0936-577X
  • eISSN : 1616-1572

エクスポート
BibTeX RIS