Mar, 2014
Dynamic process model of mass effects on travel demand
TRANSPORTATION
- ,
- ,
- Volume
- 41
- Number
- 2
- First page
- 279
- Last page
- 304
- Language
- English
- Publishing type
- Research paper (scientific journal)
- DOI
- 10.1007/s11116-013-9460-y
- Publisher
- SPRINGER
Whereas transportation planners commonly predict the negative impacts of mass transportation, there is increasing empirical evidence of the existence of positive mass effects, whereby increased use of a mode by the 'mass' will generally increase its attractiveness for future travellers. In this paper we consider the dynamic impact of such an effect on the problem of travel demand forecasting, with particular regards to social network effects. Our proposed modelling approach is inspired by literature from social physics, evolutionary game theory and marketing. For simplicity of exposition, our model is specified for a scenario in which (a) there is a binary choice between two mobility lifestyles, referred to as car-oriented and transit-oriented, and (b) there are two population groups, where one is the "leading" or "innovative" population group and the other the "following" or "imitating" population group. This latter distinction follows the rather well-known Bass model from the marketing literature (1969). We develop the transition probabilities and transition dynamics. We illustrate with a numerical case study that despite lower intrinsic utility for the transit lifestyle, significant changes towards this lifestyle can be achieved by considering congestion, service improvements and mass effects. We further illustrate that mass effects can be positive or negative. In all cases we explore the sensitivity of our conclusions to the assumed parameter values.
- Link information
- ID information
-
- DOI : 10.1007/s11116-013-9460-y
- ISSN : 0049-4488
- eISSN : 1572-9435
- Web of Science ID : WOS:000331560600003