論文

査読有り
2020年3月20日

Integrated Study on Forecasting Volcanic Hazards of Sakurajima Volcano, Japan

Journal of Disaster Research
  • Masato Iguchi
  • ,
  • Haruhisa Nakamichi
  • ,
  • Takeshi Tameguri

15
2
開始ページ
174
終了ページ
186
記述言語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.20965/jdr.2020.p0174
出版者・発行元
Fuji Technology Press Ltd.

Several types of eruptions have occurred at Sakurajima volcano in the past 100 years. The eruption in 1914 was of a Plinian type followed by an effusion of lava. The progression of seismicity of volcanic earthquakes prior to the eruption is reexamined and seismic energy is estimated to be an order of 1014 J. Lava also effused from the Showa crater in 1946. Since 1955, eruptions frequently have occurred at the Minamidake or Showa craters at the summit area. Vulcanian eruptions are a well-known type of summit eruption of Sakurajima, however Strombolian type eruptions and continuous ash emissions have also occurred at the Minamidake crater. The occurrence rate of pyroclastic flows significantly increased during the eruptivity of Showa crater, with the occurrence of lava fountains. Tilt and strain observations are reliable tools to forecast the eruptions, and their combination with the seismicity of volcanic earthquakes is applicable to forecasting the occurrence of pyroclastic flows. An empirical event branch logic based on magma intrusion rate is proposed to forecast the scale and type of eruption. Forecasting the scale of an eruption and real-time estimations of the discharge rate of volcanic ash allows us to assess ash fall deposition around the volcano. Volcanic ash estimation is confirmed by an integrated monitoring system of X Band Multi-Parameter radars, lidar and the Global Navigation Satellite System to detect volcanic ash particles with different wave lengths. Evaluation of the imminence of eruptions and forecasting of their scale are used for the improvement of planning and drilling of volcanic disaster measures.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2020.p0174
URL
https://www.fujipress.jp/main/wp-content/themes/Fujipress/phyosetsu.php?ppno=DSSTR001500020010
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.20965/jdr.2020.p0174
  • ISSN : 1881-2473
  • eISSN : 1883-8030

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