論文

査読有り 国際誌
2016年6月

A Bayesian Semiparametric Model for Radiation Dose-Response Estimation.

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
  • Kyoji Furukawa
  • ,
  • Munechika Misumi
  • ,
  • John B Cologne
  • ,
  • Harry M Cullings

36
6
開始ページ
1211
終了ページ
23
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1111/risa.12513

In evaluating the risk of exposure to health hazards, characterizing the dose-response relationship and estimating acceptable exposure levels are the primary goals. In analyses of health risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation, while there is a clear agreement that moderate to high radiation doses cause harmful effects in humans, little has been known about the possible biological effects at low doses, for example, below 0.1 Gy, which is the dose range relevant to most radiation exposures of concern today. A conventional approach to radiation dose-response estimation based on simple parametric forms, such as the linear nonthreshold model, can be misleading in evaluating the risk and, in particular, its uncertainty at low doses. As an alternative approach, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric model that has a connected piece-wise-linear dose-response function with prior distributions having an autoregressive structure among the random slope coefficients defined over closely spaced dose categories. With a simulation study and application to analysis of cancer incidence data among Japanese atomic bomb survivors, we show that this approach can produce smooth and flexible dose-response estimation while reasonably handling the risk uncertainty at low doses and elsewhere. With relatively few assumptions and modeling options to be made by the analyst, the method can be particularly useful in assessing risks associated with low-dose radiation exposures.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12513
PubMed
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26581473
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1111/risa.12513
  • ISSN : 0272-4332
  • PubMed ID : 26581473

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