論文

査読有り
2009年5月

The suitability of a monetary union in East Asia: What does the cointegration approach tell?

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTERS IN SIMULATION
  • Kiyotaka Sato
  • ,
  • Zhaoyong Zhang
  • ,
  • David Allen

79
9
開始ページ
2927
終了ページ
2937
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1016/j.matcom.2008.10.004
出版者・発行元
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

The issue of whether or not to form a monetary union in East Asia remains a hot issue in the study of the East Asian economies. Most of the existing studies apply a framework focusing on the symmetric issue of the fundamental shocks and the extent of correlations by applying the Blanchard and Quah [O.J. Blanchard, D. Quail, The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances, American Economic Review 79 (1989) 655-673] structural vector autoregression (VAR) technique, which includes first-differenced variables in the model and examines only the bilateral relationships. However, the shock symmetry does not necessarily require the co-movements of the real output variables between the countries concerned. The present paper employs the Johansen [S. Johansen, Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12 (1988) 231-254] cointegration approach to check the long-run co-movements of real outputs among the East Asian countries, Japan and the United States to draw some implications about forming a monetary union in the region. The results suggest that some groups of Asian NIEs plus the United States will be potential candidates to form a monetary union. Mainland China is not suggested as a member country of a monetary union with any of the grouped economies. More interestingly, the ASEAN countries alone are not a feasible group to form a monetary union unless Japan is included, which has important implications for the role of Japan towards the formation of a regional monetary union. (c) 2008 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2008.10.004
Web of Science
https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=JSTA_CEL&SrcApp=J_Gate_JST&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=WOS:000267256100025&DestApp=WOS_CPL
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1016/j.matcom.2008.10.004
  • ISSN : 0378-4754
  • Web of Science ID : WOS:000267256100025

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