論文

2021年1月22日

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Japanese Adults: The Hisayama Study.

Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis
  • Takanori Honda
  • ,
  • Sanmei Chen
  • ,
  • Jun Hata
  • ,
  • Daigo Yoshida
  • ,
  • Yoichiro Hirakawa
  • ,
  • Yoshihiko Furuta
  • ,
  • Mao Shibata
  • ,
  • Satoko Sakata
  • ,
  • Takanari Kitazono
  • ,
  • Toshiharu Ninomiya

29
3
開始ページ
345
終了ページ
361
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.5551/jat.61960

AIM: To develop and validate a new risk prediction model for predicting the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in Japanese adults. METHODS: A total of 2,454 participants aged 40-84 years without a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were prospectively followed up for 24 years. An incident ASCVD event was defined as the first occurrence of coronary heart disease or atherothrombotic brain infarction. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to construct the prediction model. In addition, a simplified scoring system was translated from the developed prediction model. The model performance was evaluated using Harrell's C statistics, a calibration plot with the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test, and a bootstrap validation procedure. RESULTS: During a median of a 24-year follow-up, 270 participants experienced the first ASCVD event. The predictors of the ASCVD events in the multivariable Cox model included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, proteinuria, smoking habits, and regular exercise. The developed models exhibited good discrimination with negligible evidence of overfitting (Harrell's C statistics: 0.786 for the multivariable model and 0.789 for the simplified score) and good calibrations (the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test: P=0.29 for the multivariable model, 0.52 for the simplified score). CONCLUSION: We constructed a risk prediction model for the development of ASCVD in Japanese adults. This prediction model exhibits great potential as a tool for predicting the risk of ASCVD in clinical practice by enabling the identification of specific risk factors for ASCVD in individual patients.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5551/jat.61960
PubMed
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33487620
PubMed Central
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8894117
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.5551/jat.61960
  • PubMed ID : 33487620
  • PubMed Central 記事ID : PMC8894117

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