論文

査読有り 国際誌
2021年7月7日

Role of temperature, influenza and other local characteristics in seasonality of mortality: a population-based time-series study in Japan.

BMJ open
  • Lina Madaniyazi
  • ,
  • Chris Fook Sheng Ng
  • ,
  • Xerxes Seposo
  • ,
  • Michiko Toizumi
  • ,
  • Lay-Myint Yoshida
  • ,
  • Yasushi Honda
  • ,
  • Ben Armstrong
  • ,
  • Masahiro Hashizume

11
7
開始ページ
e044876
終了ページ
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044876

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the extent to which temperature and influenza explained seasonality of mortality in Japan and to examine the association of the seasonality with prefecture-specific characteristics. DESIGN: We conducted time-series analysis to estimate the seasonal amplitude before and after adjusting for temperature and/or influenza-like illness (ILI). Next, we applied linear mixed effect models to investigate the association of seasonal amplitudes with each indicator on prefecture-specific characteristics on climate, demographic and socioeconomic factors and adaptations. SETTING: 47 prefectures in Japan PARTICIPANTS: Deaths for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory disease between 1999 and 2015. OUTCOME MEASURES: Peak-to-trough ratio (PTR, a measure of seasonal amplitude). RESULTS: The nationwide unadjusted-PTRs for all-cause, circulatory and respiratory mortality were 1.29 (95% CIs: 1.28 to 1.31), 1.55 (95% CI: 1.52 to 1.57) and 1.45 (95% CI: 1.43 to 1.48), respectively. These PTRs reduced substantially after adjusting for temperature but very little after a separate adjustment for ILI. Furthermore, seasonal amplitudes varied between prefectures. However, there was no strong evidence for the associations of PTR with the indicators on prefecture-specific characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Seasonality of mortality is primarily driven by temperature in Japan. The spatial variation in seasonal amplitudes was not associated with prefecture-specific characteristics. Although further investigations are required to confirm our findings, this study can help us gain a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying seasonality of mortality.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044876
PubMed
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34233967
PubMed Central
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8264909
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044876
  • PubMed ID : 34233967
  • PubMed Central 記事ID : PMC8264909

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