論文

査読有り 筆頭著者 責任著者 国際共著 国際誌
2021年7月

Balancing a budget or running a deficit? The offset regime of carbon removal and solar geoengineering under a carbon budget

Climatic Change
  • Shinichiro Asayama
  • ,
  • Mike Hulme
  • ,
  • Nils Markusson

167
1-2
開始ページ
25
終了ページ
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1007/s10584-021-03174-1
出版者・発行元
Springer Science and Business Media {LLC}

<title>Abstract</title>The idea of the carbon budget is a powerful conceptual tool to define and quantify the climate challenge. Whilst scientists present the carbon budget as the geophysical foundation for global net-zero targets, the financial metaphor of a budget implies figuratively the existence of a ‘budget manager’ who oversees the budget balance. Using this fictive character of budget manager as a heuristic device, the paper analyses the roles of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM) under a carbon budget. We argue that both CDR and SRM can be understood as ‘technologies of offset’. CDR offsets positive carbon emissions by negative emissions, whereas SRM offsets the warming from positive greenhouse gas forcing by the induced cooling from negative forcing. These offset technologies serve as flexible budgeting tools in two different strategies for budget management: they offer the promise of achieving a balanced budget, but also introduce the possibility for running a budget deficit. The lure of offsetting rests on the flexibility of keeping up an ‘appearance’ of delivering a given budget whilst at the same time easing budget constraints for a certain period of time. The political side-effect of offsetting is to change the stringency of budgetary constraints from being regulated by geophysics to being adjustable by human discretion. As a result, a budget deficit can be normalised as an acceptable fiscal condition. We suggest that the behavioural tendency of policymakers to avoid blame could lead them to resort to using offset technologies to circumvent the admission of failure to secure a given temperature target.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03174-1
共同研究・競争的資金等の研究課題
気候変動の適応をめぐる科学と政治の交錯ー気候工学と気候移住を事例に
共同研究・競争的資金等の研究課題
気候科学の知識生産とメディア報道の政治作用:IPCCを事例とした日英比較研究
URL
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-021-03174-1.pdf
URL
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03174-1/fulltext.html
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1007/s10584-021-03174-1
  • ISSN : 0165-0009
  • ISSN : 1573-1480
  • eISSN : 1573-1480
  • ORCIDのPut Code : 124514856

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