Environmental fluctuations can influence invertebrate population dynamics over large spatial scales, and effects of climate change are of particular importance in understanding phenology. In this study, we tested whether changing climate patterns could increase voltinism and emergence synchrony in Stenotus rubrovittatus and drive the mirid bug's expansion into currently uninhabited areas of Japan. This expansion could have potentially serious economic consequences for the rice industry. We modelled development of S. rubrovittatus in the field applying the effective accumulated temperature model to calculate the theoretical number of generations and the egg hatching dates from 2003 to 2012 based on a high-resolution, daily weather database. We then performed a regional analysis to assess the relationship between population dynamics and range expansion across the study region and also included a local analysis to evaluate how population parameters affect the presence of S. rubrovittatus at local sites in each year. Results showed that distribution expanded with a relative increase in voltinism and with synchrony of egg hatching date. Moreover, we showed that increased voltinism in the previous year positively influenced local population occurrence. This positive effect suggests that the species’ distribution range expands through increased reproduction at both the regional and local scale. Climate-mediated population dynamics play a significant role in range expansion of the mirid bug.