論文

査読有り
2018年7月26日

Scenario-Based Simulation of Tianjin City Using a Cellular Automata–Markov Model

Sustainability
  • Ruci Wang
  • ,
  • Hao Hou
  • ,
  • Yuji Murayama

担当区分
筆頭著者, 責任著者
10
8
開始ページ
2633
終了ページ
2633
記述言語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.3390/su10082633
出版者・発行元
MDPI AG

Rapid urbanization is occurring throughout China, especially in megacities. Using a land use model to obtain future land use/cover conditions is an essential method to prevent chaotic urban sprawl and imbalanced development. This study utilized historical Landsat images to create land use/cover maps to predict the land use/cover changes of Tianjin city in 2025 and 2035. The cellular automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model was applied in the simulation under three scenarios: the environmental protection scenario (EPS), crop protection scenario (CPS), and spontaneous scenario (SS). The model achieved a kappa value of 86.6% with a figure of merit (FoM) of 12.18% when compared to the empirical land use/cover map in 2015. The results showed that the occupation of built-up areas increased from 29.13% in 2015 to 38.68% (EPS), 36.18% (CPS), and 47.94% (SS) in 2035. In this context, current urbanization would bring unprecedented stress on agricultural resources and forest ecosystems, which could be attenuated by implementing protection policies along with decelerating urban expansion. The findings provide valuable information for urban planners to achieve sustainable development goals.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082633
URL
http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/8/2633/pdf

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