The partition function of ABJM theory on the three-sphere has nonperturbative corrections due to membrane instantons in the M-theory dual. We show that the full series of membrane instanton corrections is completely determined by the refined topological string on the Calabi-Yau manifold known as local P-1 x P-1, in the Nekrasov-Shatashvili limit. Our result can be interpreted as a first-principles derivation of the full series of non-perturbative effects for the closed topological string on this Calabi-Yau background. Based on this, we make a proposal for the non-perturbative free energy of topological strings on general, local Calabi-Yau manifolds.