Papers

Peer-reviewed
Jul 1, 2020

Measuring public inflation perceptions and expectations in the UK

Empirical Economics
  • Yasutomo Murasawa

Volume
59
Number
1
First page
315
Last page
344
Language
English
Publishing type
Research paper (scientific journal)
DOI
10.1007/s00181-019-01675-8
Publisher
PHYSICA-VERLAG GMBH & CO

The Bank of England Inflation Attitudes Survey asks individuals about their inflation perceptions and expectations in eight intervals including an indifference limen. This paper studies fitting a mixture normal distribution to such interval data, allowing for multiple modes. Bayesian analysis is useful since ML estimation may fail. A hierarchical prior helps to obtain a weakly informative prior. The No-U-Turn Sampler speeds up posterior simulation. Permutation invariant parameters are free from the label switching problem. The paper estimates the distributions of public inflation perceptions and expectations in the UK during 2001Q1–2017Q4. The estimated means are useful for measuring information rigidity.

Link information
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01675-8
Web of Science
https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=JSTA_CEL&SrcApp=J_Gate_JST&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=WOS:000540163200013&DestApp=WOS_CPL
Scopus
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85064147264&origin=inward
Scopus Citedby
https://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85064147264&origin=inward
ID information
  • DOI : 10.1007/s00181-019-01675-8
  • ISSN : 0377-7332
  • eISSN : 1435-8921
  • SCOPUS ID : 85064147264
  • Web of Science ID : WOS:000540163200013

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