2015年
An integrated scenario analysis for future zero-carbon energy system
International Journal of Energy Research
- ,
- ,
- 巻
- 39
- 号
- 7
- 開始ページ
- 993
- 終了ページ
- 1010
- 記述言語
- 英語
- 掲載種別
- 研究論文(学術雑誌)
- DOI
- 10.1002/er.3313
© 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.An integrated scenario analysis methodology has been proposed for zero-carbon energy system in perspectives of social-economy, environment and technology. By using the methodology, service demands in all sectors were estimated based on social-economic data, and then the best technology and energy mixes were obtained to meet the service demands. The methodology was applied to Japan toward zero-carbon energy system out to the year of 2100, and three different scenarios of nuclear power development are considered in light of the Fukushima accident: (i) no further introduction of nuclear, (ii) fixed portion and (iii) no limit of nuclear. The results show that, zero-carbon energy scenario can be attained in the year 2100 when electricity will supply 75% of total energy consumption, and three power generation scenarios were proposed, 30% renewable and 70% gas-carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Scenario 1, respective one-third nuclear, renewable and gas-CCS in Scenario 2, and 60% nuclear power, 20% renewable and 10% gas-CCS in Scenario 3. Finally, Scenario 2 is rated as the most balanced scenario by putting emphasis on the availability of diversified power source, considering the inter-comparison of the three scenarios from the four aspects of cost, CO<inf>2</inf> emission, risk and diversity.
- リンク情報
- ID情報
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- DOI : 10.1002/er.3313
- ISSN : 0363-907X
- ORCIDのPut Code : 16587530
- SCOPUS ID : 84927909922