2018年7月
Development and validation of a prediction model for functional decline in older medical inpatients
Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics
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- 巻
- 77
- 号
- 開始ページ
- 184
- 終了ページ
- 188
- 記述言語
- 英語
- 掲載種別
- 研究論文(学術雑誌)
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.archger.2018.05.011
- 出版者・発行元
- ELSEVIER IRELAND LTD
Objective: To prevent functional decline in older inpatients, identification of high-risk patients is crucial. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model to assess the risk of functional decline in older medical inpatients.Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, patients 65 years admitted acutely to medical wards were included. The healthcare database of 246 acute care hospitals (n = 229,913) was used for derivation, and two acute care hospitals (n = 1767 and 5443, respectively) were used for validation. Data were collected using a national administrative claims and discharge database. Functional decline was defined as a decline of the Katz score M discharge compared with on admission.Results: About 6% of patients in the derivation cohort and 9% and 2% in each validation cohort developed functional decline. A model with 7 items, age, body mass index, living in a nursing home, ambulance use, need for assistance in walking, dementia, and bedsore, was developed. On internal validation, it demonstrated a c-statistic of 0.77 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.767-0.771) and good fit on the calibration plot. On external validation, the c-statistics were 0.79 (95% CI = 0.77-0.81) and 0.75 (95% CI = 0.73-0.77) for each cohort, respectively. Calibration plots showed good fit in one cohort and overestimation in the other one.Conclusions: A prediction model for functional decline in older medical inpatients was derived and validated. It is expected that use of the model would lead to early identification of high-risk patients and introducing early intervention.
- リンク情報
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- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.archger.2018.05.011
- PubMed
- https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29793191
- Web of Science
- https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=JSTA_CEL&SrcApp=J_Gate_JST&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=WOS:000434461900028&DestApp=WOS_CPL
- Scopus
- https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85048723884&origin=inward
- Scopus Citedby
- https://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85048723884&origin=inward
- ID情報
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- DOI : 10.1016/j.archger.2018.05.011
- ISSN : 0167-4943
- eISSN : 1872-6976
- PubMed ID : 29793191
- SCOPUS ID : 85048723884
- Web of Science ID : WOS:000434461900028