論文

査読有り
2014年1月

Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
  • Hermann Lotze-Campen
  • Martin von Lampe
  • Page Kyle
  • Shinichiro Fujimori
  • Petr Havlik
  • Hans van Meijl
  • Tomoko Hasegawa
  • Alexander Popp
  • Christoph Schmitz
  • Andrzej Tabeau
  • Hugo Valin
  • Dirk Willenbockel
  • Marshall Wise
  • 全て表示

45
1
開始ページ
103
終了ページ
116
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1111/agec.12092
出版者・発行元
WILEY-BLACKWELL

Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high-emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12092
Web of Science
https://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=JSTA_CEL&SrcApp=J_Gate_JST&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=WOS:000329917000008&DestApp=WOS_CPL
URL
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84892888931&partnerID=MN8TOARS
URL
http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1111/agec.12092
  • ISSN : 0169-5150
  • eISSN : 1574-0862
  • ORCIDのPut Code : 26870094
  • Web of Science ID : WOS:000329917000008

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