論文

査読有り 国際誌
2022年9月22日

Heavy-tailed sexual contact networks and monkeypox epidemiology in the global outbreak, 2022

Science
  • Akira Endo
  • ,
  • Hiroaki Murayama
  • ,
  • Sam Abbott
  • ,
  • Ruwan Ratnayake
  • ,
  • Carl A. B. Pearson
  • ,
  • W. John Edmunds
  • ,
  • Elizabeth Fearon
  • ,
  • Sebastian Funk

378
6615
開始ページ
90
終了ページ
94
記述言語
英語
掲載種別
研究論文(学術雑誌)
DOI
10.1126/science.add4507
出版者・発行元
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

The outbreak of monkeypox across non-endemic regions confirmed in May 2022 shows epidemiological features distinct from previously imported outbreaks, most notably its observed growth and predominance amongst men who have sex with men (MSM). We use a transmission model fitted to empirical sexual partnership data to show that the heavy-tailed sexual partnership distribution, in which a handful of individuals have disproportionately many partners, can explain the sustained growth of monkeypox among MSM despite the absence of such patterns previously. We suggest that the basic reproduction number (R0) for monkeypox over the MSM sexual network may be substantially above 1, which poses challenges to outbreak containment. Ensuring support and tailored messaging to facilitate prevention and early detection among MSM with high numbers of partners is warranted.

リンク情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.add4507
PubMed
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36137054
ID情報
  • DOI : 10.1126/science.add4507
  • ISSN : 0036-8075
  • eISSN : 1095-9203
  • PubMed ID : 36137054

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