The present state of Japanese educational reform is a mystery when seen from the outside. Although internationally known as one of the most highly achieving nations on international tests since the end of the 1990s, the Japanese have been engaged in a heated achievement crisis debate over the newest reforms to the national curriculum implemented in 2002. This article explores the main arguments and the concepts behind the achievement crisis debate, the evidence, and the consequences for Japanese educational policy. A "prospective crisis" is seen as influencing the course of the debates just as importantly as the data on the present achievement levels of Japanese children. The nature of the "crisis" is examined.